Brazil stands at a pivotal moment as its Supreme Court weighs the fate of former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven of his closest allies, all accused of orchestrating a coup to overturn the 2022 election results. The trial, which has captivated the nation and drawn international scrutiny, comes nearly three years after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated Bolsonaro in the tightest presidential race in Brazilian history. The verdict, expected in the week following September 5, 2025, could mark a turning point for Brazil’s democracy—one that observers say will either reinforce the country’s commitment to the rule of law or expose lingering vulnerabilities to authoritarian threats.
According to Agência Brasil, the Supreme Court’s First Panel continued its hearings on September 3, 2025, listening to the defenses of four of the eight defendants at the heart of the Attorney General’s Office complaint. Among them was Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, former Defense Minister, whose lawyer Andrew Fernandes argued vigorously for his client’s innocence. “It has been more than proven that General Paulo Sérgio is innocent,” Fernandes stated, emphasizing that Nogueira had actively tried to dissuade Bolsonaro from pursuing a coup d’état. Fernandes pointed to testimony from Mauro Cid, Bolsonaro’s former aide-de-camp, and Air Force Commander Brigadier Batista Júnior, both of whom suggested that Nogueira advised against any exceptional measures and insisted the election results should stand.
“General Paulo Sérgio Nogueira was unintentionally entangled in a conspiracy. But the evidence in the case file and the judicial investigation have unequivocally demonstrated his innocence,” Fernandes told the court, echoing the sentiment that Nogueira was more of a bystander than a participant. Fernandes further argued that the coup’s key organizers had sought to remove Nogueira from office, asking rhetorically, “How could he be part of the criminal organization if they were trying to remove him? That’s the litmus test.”
The charges against Bolsonaro and his allies are sweeping. As reported by The Guardian, investigators allege that the coup plot began even before the 2022 election, with efforts to undermine Brazil’s electronic voting system and a series of maneuvers meant to discredit the democratic process. Bolsonaro’s team is accused of orchestrating a campaign to win at any cost, including an unprecedented package of bonuses widely seen as indirect vote-buying. When these efforts failed and Lula emerged victorious—by a razor-thin 50.9% to 49.1% margin—the alleged conspiracy entered a new phase.
Perhaps the most chilling revelation from the ongoing investigation is the alleged assassination plot targeting Lula, his vice-president, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. According to federal police and the Attorney General, members of a special operations unit discussed methods to kill Lula, including poisoning or inducing organ failure. The plan, investigators say, was only aborted because the armed forces’ commanders refused to endorse Bolsonaro’s coup scheme and a court session was delayed, giving authorities time to intervene. Meanwhile, Justice Moraes was reportedly targeted by armed soldiers who took up positions near his home, awaiting orders to strike.
As the trial opened, Moraes did not mince words: “There has been an attempt at a coup d’état against the institutions of democracy, in pursuit of a dictatorship,” he declared, but also praised the resilience of Brazil’s democratic institutions. Paulo Gonet, the Attorney General, was equally blunt in his assessment, writing in his final pre-trial arguments that “Bolsonaro is the leader of the criminal organisation” and the chief strategist behind the gravest acts aimed at breaking Brazil’s democratic rule of law.
Bolsonaro, currently under house arrest due to separate charges of attempting to coerce judges, has denied all accusations. Plagued by health issues, including bouts of hiccups and vomiting, he did not request permission to attend the trial in person. In his defense, Bolsonaro claims there is “not a single piece of evidence” linking him to the January 8, 2025, riot in which thousands of his supporters ransacked the presidential palace, Congress, and Supreme Court buildings—a chaotic event that investigators say was the culmination of the coup plot. Bolsonaro also denies any knowledge of the assassination plan uncovered on a device belonging to his deputy chief of staff, insisting in testimony that no such plan was ever brought to his attention.
Despite these denials, the case against Bolsonaro appears formidable. Investigators have traced the plot’s origins back to 2021, documenting a series of meetings and “scenario studies” exploring alternative ways for Bolsonaro to remain in office. The most damning evidence, according to prosecutors, is the series of decrees and strategies discussed to enable Bolsonaro to cling to power should he lose at the ballot box. Even after losing, Bolsonaro refused to participate in the traditional handover of power, instead flying to the United States as his supporters camped outside army buildings and, eventually, stormed government institutions in Brasília.
Constitutional law professor Gabriela Zancaner Bandeira de Mello told The Guardian that the evidence against Bolsonaro is “robust” and that the claims of a political “witch-hunt” are unfounded. “Throughout the entire process, Bolsonaro has had full rights to a defence and to due process, and this trial will leave a legacy for Brazil,” she said. “It will show that our democracy, though young, has matured greatly in recent times and that authoritarianism no longer has room to flourish here.”
Yet, even as the Supreme Court deliberates, the political battle continues in Brazil’s National Congress. On September 4, 2025, President Lula da Silva warned of a “risk of amnesty” for those implicated in the coup plot if the issue comes to a vote in Congress. Speaking with community leaders in Belo Horizonte, Lula criticized “false patriots” in the U.S. who have called for former President Trump to intervene in Brazil. He cautioned that, despite the government’s legislative successes, the far right remains powerful and that centrist and opposition party leaders are actively working on a broad amnesty project for those involved in both the 2022 coup plot and the January 8 events—including Bolsonaro himself.
“If it goes to a vote in Congress, we run the risk of amnesty. Congress has helped the government, the government has passed almost everything it wanted, but the far right still has a lot of strength. So this is also a battle that must be fought by the people,” Lula told his audience, as reported by Agência Brasil. The prospect of amnesty has become a flashpoint in Brazilian politics, with critics arguing it could undermine accountability and embolden future threats to democracy, while supporters say it could help the country move forward and heal divisions.
As Brazil awaits the Supreme Court’s verdict, the stakes could hardly be higher. The outcome will not only determine the fate of Bolsonaro and his inner circle but also set a precedent for how Brazil confronts challenges to its democratic institutions. The world is watching closely, and for many Brazilians, the hope is that the nation’s hard-won democracy will emerge stronger—no matter the verdict.
