The war in Sudan is reaching a critical juncture after nearly two years of brutal fighting that has left tens of thousands dead, millions displaced, and the country on the brink of famine. Following significant losses, the Sudanese military has claimed to regain control of Khartoum, including the iconic Republican Palace, traditionally the seat of power. This military success, however, merely deepens the conflict with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who continue to assert their presence even after acknowledging the loss of strategic territory.
The conflict erupted in April 2023 after two erstwhile allies—military chief Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan and RSF leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti—turned against each other, disrupting plans for a democratic transition that followed the downfall of long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Since then, at least 28,000 people have died, and over 14 million have been displaced, as battles raged across the country, particularly in Khartoum and the Darfur region.
As of March 21, 2025, footage from the Sudanese military shows soldiers celebrating their recapture of the presidential palace with cries of "The republican palace has now returned to the arms of the homeland." Khalid al-Aleisir, Sudan's information minister, took to social media to proclaim, "Today the flag is raised, the palace is back and the journey continues until victory is complete." This marked a significant shift in the conflict dynamics, with the military now aimed at solidifying control over Khartoum.
However, the RSF, which still holds the majority of western Sudan, remains defiant. The role of the RSF in the conflict has not only been a source of controversy but has drawn severe international scrutiny. The group emerged from the infamous Janjaweed militia, accused of committing atrocities during the Darfur genocide. The U.S. government has imposed sanctions on Dagalo, citing his forces’ involvement in genocide against African ethnic groups, a charge that the RSF vehemently denies.
The expansion of the RSF's ambitions is evident in their signing of a charter in February 2025 in Nairobi, Kenya, which aims to establish a parallel government in Sudan. This charter calls for a "secular, democratic and decentralized state" and seeks to maintain the territory's integrity amidst calls for autonomy from various communities across the nation. Such developments could lead to a de facto partition of Sudan, with distinct territory controlled by military and RSF administrations.
As military forces consolidate their power in Khartoum and push further into RSF-held territory, anticipation grows regarding the unfolding scenarios for civilians stuck in the epicenter of conflict. The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, with hundreds of thousands suffering from famine amidst a backdrop of violence and instability. Reports detail ongoing suffering, particularly in the Darfur region where the largest refugee camp has been besieged by RSF fighters for months.
The RSF has continued to assert its influence, even as they lost the Republican Palace. Hemedti vowed that his forces would not abandon the palace, insisting that the battle was "not over yet" through a statement published on social media just hours after the military claimed victory. The ongoing struggle reflects the tenuous hold both factions have in different parts of Sudan, as well as the rising threat of internal strife as allegiances shift on the ground.
Reconciliation appears to be a far-fetched prospect, with compromises seemingly absent, as Burhan shows no inclination towards serious negotiations while Dagalo's ambitions maintain pressure for power. Interestingly, the RSF has remained entrenched in many areas, including the crucial Khartoum International Airport, just 2.5 kilometers southeast of the Republican Palace. This control grants RSF open access and a strategic asset in sustaining their fight against the military regime.
The current phase of resistance is expected to deepen the humanitarian costs as soldiers navigate urban battlefields rife with civilian presence. The cost of defense for the RSF becomes exponentially higher as military pushback intensifies, emphasizing casualties amidst claims of active combat against a backdrop of daily human suffering.
Despite the calls for ceasefires, instability prevails, making it difficult for humanitarian aid to reach those in desperate need. With each milestone captured by the military, there appears to be a counter-move by the RSF to assert forces elsewhere, compelling an ongoing cycle of violence. As Burhan strives to maintain the momentum of recent victories, international observers continue to challenge the moral implications of the humanitarian crisis intensifying as combatants prioritize military objectives above all else.
In a volatile geopolitical landscape, domestic resilience amidst despair meets stark realities of power shifts, civilian suffering, and international ramifications as Sudan teeters on the precipice of further disintegration. Eyebrows raise at the implications of prolonged warfare as the fighting drags along, further fracturing trust within communities caught in the conflict, raising concerns about long-term implications for Sudan and the surrounding regions.
As the clash for autonomy and sovereignty continues, the outcome remains uncertain, with many fearing the worst as essential civil liberties and humanitarian needs are overshadowed by the relentless struggle for power. The stakes are high as both factions assess their positions, marking a critical juncture where the path forward could dictate the fate of the nation heading into an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical landscape.
