The conflict in Sudan is intensifying as the military and paramilitary forces clash for control over the country. The tensions, which erupted publicly on April 15, 2023, have evolved from a deteriorated relationship between two powerful generals—Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the army, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—into full-blown violence.
General al-Burhan has recently reiterated his demand for peace, stating he is willing to negotiate only if Hemedti withdraws his forces from contested areas. This ultimatum came during his address at the United Nations General Assembly. He emphasized the dire conditions of the war, which has devastated many areas across Sudan, particularly the capital, Khartoum.
Fighting has escalated, especially as the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched aggressive maneuvers to reclaim territory from the RSF, leading to significant military encounters. This was prominently displayed on September 29, 2024, when Lt. Gen. Yasser al-Atta visited military zones north of Khartoum, inspecting troops who fought to regain strategic areas from the RSF. Al-Atta claimed heavy losses for the RSF over recent offensives, asserting the SAF's determination to stabilize control within the city.
The clashes have extended beyond the capital, impacting various regions across Sudan. Reports indicate continued military confrontations not just within urban neighborhoods but also across states such as Al Jazirah, North Kordofan, and even regions as far as Darfur. Civilian casualties and war crimes have tragically become commonplace, with accounts of sexual violence surfacing from various areas caught up in the conflict.
The humanitarian crisis worsens as access to basic necessities remains severely disrupted. The United Nations estimates about 25 million people within Sudan need humanitarian aid, marking nearly half of the nation’s population. This stark figure reflects how deeply the war has impacted society, leading to widespread famine and forced displacements.
Adding complexity to the conflict, accusations have arisen surrounding foreign involvement. The Sudanese military has accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supporting and arming the RSF, allegations the UAE vehemently denies. Nevertheless, tensions escalated when the UAE announced its ambassador's residence was attacked by Sudanese military aircraft, resulting in substantial damage to its diplomatic mission. The UAE condemned this action, asserting it violated diplomatic norms and demanded accountability.
While both sides have previously participated in negotiation attempts, the feasibility of achieving peace remains uncertain. The RSF declared on September 29, 2024, it would cease negotiations with the Sudanese army, indicating it had resolved to pursue military engagements rather than diplomatic solutions. Their spokesperson, Mohamed Al-Mukhtar Al-Nur, claimed the RSF would continue to fight, even predicting they would push their forces all the way to Port Sudan.
Reports of joy among certain civilian populations loyal to the army indicate some excitement over the SAF’s recent successes, but this doesn’t mask the harrowing realities thousands face. Combatants are engaged on multiple fronts, and support networks for basic needs are crumbling.
International responses have ramped up, with world leaders, including United States President Joe Biden, urging cessation of arms to those involved and signaling the dire need for aid to civilians trapped within the conflict zones. Local voices, along with regional actors, are increasingly calling for immediate intervention to protect civilians and instate humanitarian relief operations. They demand urgent dialogue among combatants to prevent the catastrophic situation from deterioring any more.
Before the conflict, the RSF was part of Sudan’s official military structure, but their rise to power several years post-coup indicates the challenge of uniting disparate forces within the country’s power structure. This rivalry not only continues to breed violence but poses grave risks to Sudan’s future stability and survival. More than merely a struggle for power, this conflict has deep roots which touch upon decades of internal strife, ethnic tensions, and socio-economic challenges.
Public sentiments vary across the country. While some celebrate military actions against the RSF, many Sudanese civilians remain caught between the crossfire, their pleas for safety largely ignored as forces vie for dominance. The resilient resolve of the people, standing against violence and injustice, emphasizes the urgency for the international community to engage heartily and support efforts toward restoring peace and stability to Sudan.
With no clear end to the violence, as the army prepares for more offensives with new military resources arriving, the future looks bleak for Sudan. The question remains: can the international community find leverage to unify the disparate powers within Sudan, or will the fighting continue unchecked, leading to greater humanitarian crises?
