As September unfolds, the United Kingdom is bracing for a dramatic shift in weather, with meteorologists warning of a week marked by wind, rain, and the looming possibility of the season’s first named storm—Storm Amy. After a record-breaking summer of heat and sunshine, the arrival of autumn is making itself felt in no uncertain terms, as unsettled conditions sweep in from the Atlantic and threaten to bring widespread disruption across the country.
According to BBC Weather, the change began in earnest on Wednesday, September 10, 2025, as wind and rain swept in from the Atlantic, leading to a noticeable drop in temperatures and raising the risk of thunderstorms. This unsettled pattern is expected to persist into the weekend, with meteorologists closely monitoring the development of deeper low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic. Should any of these systems intensify enough, the UK could see its first named storm of the 2025-2026 season—aptly called ‘Storm Amy’—before the week is out.
The driving force behind this abrupt change is the jet stream, a fast-moving ribbon of air in the upper atmosphere. As explained by BBC Weather, the jet stream has shifted south of the UK this week and is strengthening, opening the door for low-pressure systems to move eastwards and bring rain and wind to all regions. Over the spring and summer, the jet stream was locked in a ‘blocked’ pattern further north, often keeping rain-bearing weather fronts at bay. But with the arrival of autumn, this pattern has broken down, and the UK is now firmly under the influence of Atlantic weather systems.
Forecasts indicate that rainfall accumulations over the next five days could exceed 100mm around some western coasts, while eastern parts of Britain might see as little as 10mm. The Met Office has cautioned that, as deeper areas of low pressure develop in the coming days, it remains too early to predict the precise impact—particularly whether any will develop into a named storm. However, the first on the list for the new season is ‘Amy,’ a name chosen by the public in an appeal launched by the weather agency back in June. Thousands submitted suggestions, with ‘Amy’ emerging as the most popular female name.
Deputy Chief Meteorologist Tom Crabtree of the Met Office told the Liverpool Echo, “We are keeping an eye on a deepening area of low-pressure which will develop over the North Atlantic during the coming days and might bring impactful weather to the UK, most likely on Sunday and Monday. At present, it’s too early to say the precise impact this might have on the weather, but it’s likely to bring widespread heavy rain and strong winds, most probably to the north of the UK. We are closely monitoring what the various computer models are suggesting and will keep people updated as our forecasts evolve over the next few days.”
This week’s weather has already been making headlines in Scotland, where the Met Office has warned of “thunder and hail” as a huge ‘thundery’ rainstorm is set to engulf the country on Wednesday, September 10. Data from WX Charts shows a massive system of rain moving in from the west early in the morning, spreading eastward and drenching the entire central belt, the Highlands, and the Western Isles by midday. The heaviest rain is expected in the Scottish Borders, Edinburgh, and the Highlands, with rainfall rates reaching five to ten millimeters per hour. The Met Office has cautioned that some showers may become thundery, and there is even the possibility of hail.
Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick described the situation: “Wednesday will be a mostly cloudy, breezy and rather cool day. Showers, some heavy and perhaps thundery, merging to give some longer spells of rain from the west and southwest.” She added, “It’s probably going to be quite a cloudy start for many of us, a risk of showers once again drifting their way eastwards. We’ll start to see the breeze pick up before we do see this next band of rain push in from the west. Quite blustery, with some heavy spells of rain mixed in there too, possibly even some hail and thunder. So quite an unsettled, and possibly quite a wet day by the time we reach the afternoon on Wednesday.”
The pattern is similar across the North West, including Liverpool, where the Met Office predicts a week dominated by sunshine and showers, with longer spells of heavy rain likely, particularly in the north and west. Tuesday, September 9, is expected to be the best day of the week, with wetter and windier conditions arriving from Wednesday. Winds are set to pick up, with the risk of gales on exposed northwestern coasts and hills. Thursday and Friday will see more sunshine and blustery showers, some of which may turn heavy and thundery, especially in the south and west. There is even a risk of thunderstorms and small hail in the heaviest showers.
Looking ahead, the Met Office is keeping a close watch on the deepening area of low pressure developing over the North Atlantic. While it is too early to say exactly how this system will impact the UK, the current expectation is for widespread heavy rain and strong winds, particularly in the north, on Sunday and Monday, September 14 and 15. As the week progresses, the country could see the arrival of Storm Amy, though the Met Office has yet to confirm its official status.
Beyond the immediate forecast, longer-range models suggest that the UK faces an increased chance of a ‘wetter than average’ spell from September to November. However, as BBC Weather notes, seasonal forecasts always come with a degree of uncertainty and should be interpreted as likely trends rather than definitive predictions. It’s unlikely, for instance, that the country will see a repeat of September 2024, when ten English counties recorded their wettest September on record, with some receiving more than three times their usual rainfall and experiencing widespread flooding.
This year, the stakes are high for rainfall. From January to August 2025, the UK received just 44% of its expected annual rainfall, compared to an average of 67% by this stage in a typical year. To return to ‘normal’ rainfall totals by the end of 2025, the country would need to see 141% of average rainfall each month from September to December. While this week’s rain will help replenish river levels and soil moisture, experts caution that it will take time for catchments to recover and for reservoirs and aquifers to respond. As the Met Office puts it, “Sustained rainfall throughout autumn and winter will be needed in some areas to restore water resources.”
All of this unfolds against the backdrop of a warming climate. Climate scientists expect the UK to experience wetter, warmer winters and hotter, drier summers as the planet warms. Although the distribution and intensity of rainfall are shifting, the link between climate change and drought remains complex, shaped by both hydrological and societal factors.
With the weather turning, the UK finds itself at the mercy of the Atlantic once again. Whether Storm Amy makes landfall or not, one thing is clear: the days of cloudless skies and record heat are now firmly in the rearview mirror, and the unpredictable, tempestuous nature of autumn has well and truly arrived.
