Sir Keir Starmer, the UK’s Prime Minister and Labour Party leader, has pledged to steer his party into the crucial 2026 Holyrood election in Scotland, as well as simultaneous contests for the Welsh Parliament and English local councils. This commitment, voiced on September 25, 2025, comes at a time of heightened scrutiny, as internal party tensions and sobering poll numbers cast a shadow over Labour’s prospects north of the border.
Starmer’s vow followed mounting speculation about Labour’s leadership, fueled by Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s acknowledgment that some Labour MPs have approached him about the possibility of a challenge. Burnham, who is not an MP, has stopped short of declaring any intention to seek the top job, but he didn’t rule out the prospect either. Instead, he emphasized the need for "a proper plan for the country, and a proper plan for beating Reform," as reported by BBC Scotland. Burnham’s policy suggestions—raising taxes on higher earners and boosting borrowing to fund council house construction—have been interpreted as a gentle critique of Starmer’s more cautious economic approach.
Asked directly by BBC Scotland if he would lead Labour across all major 2026 elections, Starmer replied with characteristic resolve: "Yes. When I took over as leader of the Labour Party, people told me I couldn’t change the Labour Party, I did. When we went into the general election, people told me, I couldn’t win, and we did. Now I’m leading the change across the United Kingdom, including delivering better change for Scotland and I’ll continue to do so."
Yet, for all Starmer’s confidence, the mood within Scottish Labour is anything but settled. Anas Sarwar, the party’s leader in Scotland, faces a daunting task: convincing voters that Labour is ready to govern at Holyrood for the first time since 2007. Polls suggest the challenge is steep. According to Ipsos polling released on September 25, only 16% of Scots have a favorable opinion of Starmer—worse even than US President Donald Trump, who polled at 20% favorability. Sarwar himself fares little better, with a net favorability of -26 compared to Starmer’s -47. SNP leader John Swinney, though still in negative territory, remains the most popular with a net rating of -10.
These figures, described as "grim reading for Labour" by Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos Scotland, have put Sarwar in a delicate position. While he has often been a loyal defender of Starmer—backing controversial welfare reforms, supporting immigration policy changes, and standing by the Prime Minister during the Peter Mandelson controversy—Sarwar has recently shown signs of distancing himself. Speaking to journalists in Holyrood, he repeatedly dodged questions about whether he had full confidence in Starmer. "He has got a really difficult job, we have made significant progress in the last year," Sarwar said, before adding, "If I’ve got one single biggest criticism of a UK Labour Government, it is there have been huge successes, but very few people have been told about them or know about them."
Pressed further, Sarwar dismissed the question of confidence as "frankly ridiculous," pointing to Starmer’s "historic victory" in ousting the Conservatives and achieving a landslide win. "Now he has to get on with the day job," Sarwar insisted, pivoting quickly to attack SNP leader John Swinney as "the worst person to be in Bute House" and urging Burnham to remain focused on Manchester rather than Westminster intrigue.
Despite Sarwar’s attempts to change the subject, the polling data is hard to ignore. Only 19% of Scots believe Labour is ready to form the next Scottish Government, and Labour’s lead over the SNP has evaporated. A Find Out Now poll for The National placed Labour at just 14% on the constituency list and 15% on the regional list, projecting a meager 16 MSPs. Another poll from Scotland in Union, conducted by Survation, gave the SNP a commanding 17-point lead. According to polling expert John Curtice, a poor showing in Scotland might not be catastrophic for Starmer’s leadership—but a loss in Labour’s traditional stronghold of Wales could be another story entirely.
Amid these headwinds, Starmer has sought to highlight tangible wins for Scotland. He cited a £10 billion deal for Clyde-built warships for the Norwegian navy as evidence of Labour delivering for Scottish workers. On the international stage, he confirmed lobbying US President Donald Trump during a recent state visit to secure a tariff exemption for Scotch whisky, which currently faces a 10% levy costing the industry £4 million per week. Trump, however, left the UK without agreeing to a deal. First Minister John Swinney also raised the issue with Trump, saying he had "laid the groundwork" for a deal and now it was up to the UK to "get it over the line."
Starmer has also been keen to draw a contrast with the economic turmoil of the recent past. He stressed that Labour’s adherence to fiscal rules is designed to "protect working people" and pointedly referenced the chaos that ensued when Liz Truss abandoned such rules three years ago. "I’m not going to let that happen under a Labour government," he told BBC Scotland.
Still, communication—or the lack thereof—remains a recurring theme. Sarwar has repeatedly argued that Labour’s government has not done enough to publicize its achievements, such as lower mortgage costs and rising average wages. "There are lots of great things that our Labour government has done that we have got to be much clearer about, but there are still huge things still to do which are impacting people's daily lives. And I think it'd be unrealistic to think that we solved every problem the country has within 15 months. This is like 14 years of complete horror that was left by the Conservatives," Sarwar said, as reported by The National.
As Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool approaches, the party faces a pivotal moment. The specter of a leadership challenge, persistent polling woes, and the ever-present rivalry with the SNP all loom large. For Starmer, the road to 2026 is fraught with uncertainty—but he remains adamant that he is the one to lead Labour through the storm. For Sarwar, the balancing act between loyalty to the UK leader and the realities of Scottish politics grows ever more precarious. And for Scottish voters, the coming months will offer a clear view of whether Labour’s promises of change can finally overcome years of disappointment and division.
With the 2026 Holyrood election fast approaching, the fate of Labour in Scotland—and perhaps Starmer’s own future—will soon be decided at the ballot box.
