Sri Lanka is currently seeing the emergence of significant political change as the nation heads toward its 2024 presidential election, marking it as the culmination of years of economic turmoil and civil unrest. Recent reports indicate strong momentum for the opposition, particularly for Anura Kumara Dissanayaka, the main Marxist candidate, as he takes on the incumbent president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who has been seeking to continue his reforms under the backdrop of International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions.
This election has shifted to be regarded as more than just another political event; it has transformed largely due to the current economic circumstances—where severe austerity measures have left many struggling to meet their daily needs. Reports suggest approximately 17 million people are eligible to vote, and about 76 percent of these voters have already cast their ballots, highlighting strong civic engagement albeit under challenging conditions.
Dissanayaka, 55, has presented himself as the fresh face of hope against the backdrop of stringent IMF-imposed austerity. His party has historically led two significant failed uprisings during the 1970s and 1980s, resulting in the loss of over 80,000 lives. Despite prior low polling results, the current crisis conditions have propelled Dissanayaka to the forefront, as disenchantment with the current administration grows. Through promises to amend the prevailing ‘corrupt’ political culture and genuinely change the status quo, he has garnered renewed support.
On the flip side, President Wickremesinghe, who is 75 years old, is seeking re-election partially to sustain the economic stabilization efforts initiated during his term. Since assuming the presidency after civil unrest led to the flight of his predecessor, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, he managed to create some semblance of calm and has heavily emphasized taking Sri Lanka out of its recent bankruptcy. His tax hikes and spending cuts, aimed at complying with IMF suggestions and stabilizing the economy, have undoubtedly caused significant hardship for many citizens.
While preliminary results indicate Dissanayaka's rising popularity, with more than 58 percent of postal ballots counted, Wickremesinghe has yet to formally concede. Early indicators from government aides suggest Dissanayaka's camp is seen as leading, with Rajapaksa's campaign acknowledging his defeat early on. Following the announcement of early results, Wickremesinghe declared curfews, which he justified as necessary for public safety.
The sentiment among Dissanayaka’s supporters outlines the perceived need for swift and radical transformation within the governing structure of the country. This fervor reflects the challenges faced by ordinary Sri Lankans—where months of shortages for basic essentials like food and fuel have caused widespread distress.
Economic analysts note the pressing need to renegotiate IMF terms, which both Dissanayaka and fellow opposition leader Sajith Premadasa are promising their supporters. The latter, expected to finish second, has amplified calls for tackling corruption which resonates with voters disillusioned by the political elite’s previous failings.
Despite varying opinions about the election outcome, all parties and voters recognize its importance. The overarching narrative of the election presents voters with the opportunity to choose between maintaining austerity under Wickremesinghe or shifting toward Dissanayaka’s vision for substantive political change.
Overall, the stakes have never been higher for Sri Lanka. The upcoming days will reveal how this politically charged atmosphere will proceed as the votes are fully counted. With significant turnout and palpable tension marking this election season, any resulting unrest could mirror the recent tumultuous events of 2022, leading observers to speculate on the prospects for peace and stability as the nation navigates its immediate future.
