The Virginia governor’s race is barreling toward its final weeks, and the political landscape is shifting in ways few anticipated just months ago. As of October 3, 2025, Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger holds a commanding double-digit lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, according to both a new Hill/Emerson College poll and a Washington Post-Schar School poll. The numbers paint a clear picture: Spanberger’s focus on kitchen-table issues like the economy, education, and healthcare has resonated with voters, while Earle-Sears’ heavy emphasis on anti-transgender messaging appears to be falling flat.
For months, the airwaves across Virginia have been saturated with campaign ads, but none have been more relentless than those from Earle-Sears’ camp targeting transgender issues. In September alone, Earle-Sears poured $2 million into ads attacking Spanberger’s support for transgender rights—more than she spent on any other issue. The strategy was familiar: echoing the 2024 playbook, her ads accused Spanberger of being for “they/them,” accompanied by images of transgender and gender-nonconforming Biden administration officials. It was a tactic that had, in years past, energized portions of the Republican base and even helped Glenn Youngkin win the governor’s mansion in 2021.
But this time, the formula isn’t working. The latest polling shows Spanberger leading by 10 points overall, a margin that grows to 19 points among independent voters. According to the Washington Post-Schar School poll, her support is especially strong among those worried about Virginia’s job market and economic prospects. The same poll notes that the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general remain much closer, with Democratic candidates who lean further left struggling to win over swing voters. But in the marquee governor’s contest, Spanberger’s centrist message is paying dividends.
What’s behind the shift? Voters themselves are clear: transgender issues simply aren’t a priority. When asked to rank the most important topics in the race, between 80 and 90 percent of Virginians pointed to the economy, education, and healthcare. Transgender issues, by contrast, landed at the very bottom of the list. “The majority of respondents said that transgender issues were unimportant—the only issue in the race to receive such a rating,” reports Hill/Emerson College. Among independents, a whopping 61 percent called transgender issues unimportant, helping explain why this critical bloc is breaking so decisively for Spanberger.
Interestingly, the poll also found that 56 percent of Democrats consider transgender issues important—a higher share than among Republicans. But that doesn’t mean Earle-Sears’ attacks are winning her new converts. If anything, those who do care about transgender rights are more likely to support Spanberger, while the rest of the electorate shrugs off the entire debate. The data suggests that, at least for now, attempts to stoke outrage over transgender policies are not shifting the needle in the way Republican strategists might hope.
That reality has not gone unnoticed within Earle-Sears’ own party. Former Republican Virginia Lt. Governor Bill Bolling voiced his frustration publicly, posting on Facebook: “Winsome Earle Sears is out with a new TV ad. Anyone want to guess what it’s about? You guessed it, another ad about transgender issues! Look, I don’t support biological males participating in girl’s sports, and I certainly don’t support letting biological males use girl’s restrooms or locker rooms, but is this the only issue the Sears campaign has to talk about? What about jobs and the economy? What about education, health care and transportation? I think these are the issues Virginians care most about. Does Sears have anything to offer on these issues?” Bolling’s comments reflect a growing unease among Republicans who fear that the party’s focus on transgender issues is crowding out more pressing concerns for voters.
Spanberger, for her part, has stayed laser-focused on the bread-and-butter issues that consistently top voter concerns. She’s hammered home the economic fallout of federal budget cuts, the rising cost of living, and the need for better healthcare and education. Her approach appears to be winning over not just Democrats, but a sizable chunk of independents and even some moderate Republicans disillusioned by the tenor of Earle-Sears’ campaign.
The implications of this race extend far beyond Virginia’s borders. In 2021, Glenn Youngkin’s victory was seen as a harbinger for the national Republican strategy: focus on hot-button social issues, especially those involving transgender rights, to energize the base and win swing voters. If Earle-Sears fails to replicate that success, it could mark a turning point in how both parties approach these issues in future elections. As Hill/Emerson College puts it, “If Virginia was once a bellwether for the effectiveness of those tactics, it could now be a bellwether for their decline.”
It’s not just Republicans who are watching closely. Some Democrats have argued that their party must soft-pedal support for transgender rights to win in purple states like Virginia. But if Spanberger’s current lead holds, it may undercut that argument as well. As voters focus on economic anxiety and the cost of living, there’s little evidence that sacrificing support for marginalized groups is necessary—or even helpful—for electoral success.
The broader context is also worth noting. While the governor’s race is grabbing headlines, the contests for lieutenant governor and attorney general are much tighter. According to the Washington Post-Schar School poll, Democratic nominees who lean further left are struggling to consolidate support among swing voters. This dynamic suggests that while voters are turning away from divisive social issues, they may also be wary of candidates perceived as too ideologically extreme on other fronts. The lesson for both parties: moderation and a focus on practical concerns may be the surest path to victory in a politically divided state.
Of course, there’s still plenty of time for the dynamics to shift before Election Day. Campaigns are notorious for last-minute surprises, and Virginia’s electorate has proven unpredictable in the past. But for now, the data is clear: the anti-trans campaign strategy that once seemed so potent is losing its punch, while voters are rewarding candidates who address the issues that hit closest to home.
As the race heads into its final stretch, all eyes will be on whether Spanberger can maintain her lead—and whether Virginia will once again signal a change in the national political winds. For now, though, the message from voters is unmistakable: focus on what matters most, and leave the distractions behind.