As the markets navigate a complex web of economic data and geopolitical tensions, the S&P 500 finds itself on the brink of a critical juncture. On June 4, 2025, US indices began the day mixed but gained momentum following the release of the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, which revealed 7.391 million job openings—surpassing the expected 7.2 million and marking a monthly increase of 191,000 positions. This data underscores the resilience of the US labor market amid ongoing uncertainties, providing a boost to investor sentiment across the board.
The S&P 500, now less than 30 points shy of the psychologically significant 6,000 level, has been exhibiting a cautious yet optimistic technical pattern. Early in the week, the index capitalized on a month-end bounce from the immediate pivot at 5,846, rallying 125 points and establishing an upward trendline supported by the 4-hour 100-period moving average. Analysts observe the formation of a Cup & Handle pattern on the 1-hour chart—a classic bullish indicator—suggesting that a breakout above the 5,990 to 6,000 resistance zone could propel the index toward its all-time highs near 6,152. However, this optimism is tempered by the looming June Non-Farm Payroll report, which could sway the market either way. A strong report might fuel a surge past resistance, while disappointing figures could trigger a retreat toward the May lows around 5,730.
Yet, this positive momentum is unfolding against a backdrop of renewed geopolitical and economic caution. The optimism that buoyed markets through May and the latter half of April has given way to unease, particularly after President Donald Trump's decision to double tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum to 50%. This move rekindled volatility, although the market's reaction has been more measured than earlier episodes, with investors seemingly prepared to buy on trade-related dips, hoping for eventual de-escalation.
Compounding these tensions, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) issued warnings about global growth prospects, casting a shadow over investor confidence. Bond markets have echoed these concerns, with long-term yields in the US and Japan climbing sharply in recent weeks. However, on June 4, US Treasuries found support, bolstered by strong demand at a Japanese 10-year auction, reflecting a complex interplay of caution and opportunism among investors.
From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has been stuck in a tight range over the past week, hovering just below the 6,000 mark. Resistance at 5,940 and the 6,000 level itself has kept gains in check, while support around 5,900 has held firm thanks to a bullish trendline. Should this support falter, the index could slide toward its 200-day moving average near 5,785 to 5,790—a level that also coincides with a prior high and could offer significant support. A further breakdown might see the market test the 5,695 to 5,730 range, a zone that has repeatedly acted as a defensive barrier throughout the year.
Amid this market backdrop, fund managers are preparing for the quarterly reshuffling of the S&P 500 index, expected to be announced by the end of the week. According to Bank of America research analyst Craig Siegenthaler, several financial services stocks are poised for inclusion or exclusion, which could spark significant trading activity. Robinhood, which has been a strong performer in 2025 but remains outside the S&P 500, is viewed as a prime candidate for inclusion. Similarly, Interactive Brokers is considered a top candidate to migrate from the S&P 400 mid-cap index to the S&P 500 large-cap index due to its size and sector positioning.
Other potential additions include Ares Management, Flutter Entertainment, and Cheniere Energy, while Invesco may be demoted from the S&P 500 to the S&P 400. These changes are not merely symbolic; passive funds tracking the S&P 500, such as the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) with its $600 billion in assets, will need to adjust their holdings accordingly, often resulting in billions of dollars of buying or selling pressure around the rebalance date. Siegenthaler notes that for companies like Robinhood or Ares Management, passive funds could account for significant buying activity—up to 17% gross and 12% net of their float—if these stocks are added.
However, inclusion is not guaranteed solely by size or performance. Stocks must meet liquidity and profitability criteria, among other factors. Okta provides a cautionary example: once valued at nearly $22 billion, it saw its market capitalization shrink to $18 billion following a post-earnings sell-off, potentially jeopardizing its position relative to other S&P 400 members and affecting its eligibility for the S&P 500.
Looking ahead, investors face a delicate balancing act. The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll report on June 6 will be a critical data point, likely influencing whether the S&P 500 can break through its resistance levels or if it will retreat to test support zones. Meanwhile, the ongoing trade tensions and economic warnings temper expectations for sustained rallies without clear resolution or improved data.
In this environment, market participants are watching closely, weighing technical signals against fundamental developments. The S&P 500's ability to navigate these challenges will shape the trajectory of US equities in the weeks to come, making the next few days a pivotal period for traders and investors alike.
