As the golden fields of soybeans stretch across the Midwest, a cloud of uncertainty looms over American farmers. With harvest season upon them, growers from Nebraska to Kentucky are staring down a crisis that’s as much about politics as it is about weather, pests, or market cycles. The culprit? An escalating trade war between the United States and China, a battle that’s left the country’s top agricultural export in limbo and the livelihoods of thousands hanging in the balance.
On September 10, 2025, the mood among soybean farmers was anything but celebratory. According to reporting from Nebraska and South Dakota, China—the world’s largest buyer of soybeans and previously the destination for nearly $13 billion worth of U.S. beans last year—hasn’t placed a single order this season. For many, this is déjà vu: a painful echo of the 2018 trade standoff that prompted billions in federal payments, yet still left farm bankruptcies and debt on the rise.
“We’re feeling the pressure of the high inputs this year and probably the downside is we don’t have the commodity prices to go with the input prices, so it’s creating more pain in the farming environment,” Nebraska farmer Bruce Williams told local reporters. He’s not alone. Nebraska Farm Bureau analysts have calculated that input costs for soybean farmers have skyrocketed by 61 percent per acre since 2020, squeezing already tight margins to the breaking point.
The frustration isn’t limited to the Cornhusker State. South Dakota farmers and ranchers recently took their concerns straight to Capitol Hill, seeking answers and, perhaps, a lifeline. Chad Johnson, a corn and soybean farmer from northeastern South Dakota, summed up the mood: “It’s kind of the same thing we’ve been getting out of a few different places. We just got to talk to USDA and they kinda said, ‘We should trust the system. This is going to be good in the long run.’ But that’s, you know, with bankruptcies up in the farming community over 90% from the year prior, that’s not gonna, that’s not good enough.”
Johnson’s words cut to the heart of the matter. While the federal government has stepped in before with direct payments to offset losses from Chinese tariffs, this time, the future is even murkier. “Short-term, they haven’t really, and we’ve asked, they haven’t given us an idea if there’s going to be payments because we really don’t have a Farm Bill at this time either,” Johnson noted, highlighting the absence of a new Farm Bill and the uncertainty that brings.
President Donald Trump, who announced sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods on April 2, 2025, framed his decision as a defense of American agriculture. “We’re also standing up for our great farmers and ranchers who are brutalized by nations all over the world. Brutalized,” he declared. Yet, for many in the heartland, the intended protection feels more like collateral damage. As the tariffs have ebbed and flowed, so too has the sense of stability for producers whose planning horizon stretches years, not months.
Andrew Streff, a corn and soybean farmer from Salem, South Dakota, underscored the sense of helplessness: “When you take into account all of the costs of shipping, exchange rates and basis throughout the world, U.S. grown soybeans are the cheapest beans in the world. And China is still not coming to buy our beans. So, it is purely political at this point that China’s not purchasing beans from the United States. So that’s the part that I don’t care for in this whole thing, is that the true economics of this aren’t necessarily coming into play like I wish I could.”
Streff’s frustration is echoed by many. Despite U.S. soybeans being the most affordable on the global market, China has shifted its purchases to Brazil, the U.S.’s biggest competitor. According to Reuters, China accounts for over 60% of global soybean trade, while the European Union trails far behind at 8%. The American Soybean Association has reported that China’s boycott has caused the price per bushel to plunge, compounding the financial strain on producers.
In Kentucky, the situation is just as dire. Caleb Ragland, president of the Soybean Association, described the current environment as unprecedented in his 21 years of farming. “Everything is costing more to produce than it’s bringing in the market,” Ragland told reporters. “Inflation has really devastated our industry.” With farming cycles planned well in advance, he explained, “Growing a crop is a year-long process. It’s not the snap of a finger to make a change.” For the first time in his career, Ragland is harvesting a crop with “no chance of turning a profit.” The only strategy left? “We’re just trying to reduce how much we’re going to lose.”
Ragland was blunt about the root of the problem: “We just need policy decisions that don’t build walls around our livelihood.” Like many of his peers, he’s not asking for government handouts, just fair access to the markets they’ve spent decades cultivating. The rise of Brazil as the world’s leading soybean producer only sharpens the urgency; with China turning to South American suppliers, the U.S. risks losing its market share for good.
Amid these challenges, some state leaders are searching for new opportunities. Nebraska Governor Pillen recently returned from a trade mission to Japan, touting the state’s advantages in supplying bio-fuels like ethanol. Senator Pete Ricketts echoed this optimism, suggesting that expanding markets for biofuels could help absorb some of the soybean surplus. “We need to continue to work to open up markets,” Ricketts said. “That’s what the Trump administration is doing by, for example, getting trade deals done with the U.K.”
Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, meanwhile, voiced the sentiment of many in farm country: “Farmers want the tariff issue between the U.S. and China settled so that we would be able to market our soybeans there once again.” The stakes are high—not just for individual farmers, but for the rural communities and economies that depend on a healthy agricultural sector.
Despite the hardships, a spirit of resilience persists. Streff, for one, remains hopeful. “I remain very optimistic. And I think the farmer as a whole is always optimistic. You have to have quite a bit of faith in the future if you’re willing to plant the seed in the spring and pray for rain and let it all take care of the rest.” He sees potential in expanding uses for soybeans, such as biofuel and biodiesel, to help weather the current storm.
Still, optimism can only go so far in the face of mounting debt, rising costs, and political headwinds. As the combines roll through the fields this fall, American farmers are left with a bitter harvest: the knowledge that, for now, the world’s appetite for soybeans is being sated elsewhere, and the solutions to their predicament lie far beyond the fencerows of their fields.
