A Soviet-era spacecraft, Cosmos 482, designed to land on Venus, is slated to fall from the sky on Friday night, May 9, 2025, or early Saturday, May 10, 2025. The capsule was launched by the Soviet Union in March 1972 but failed en route to a transfer orbit to Venus. The cylinder-shaped craft is about 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter.
Cosmos 482 is predicted to crash between 10 p.m. on May 9, 2025, and 6:30 a.m. ET on May 10, 2025. The object was designed to survive reentering Venus, increasing the odds it will survive coming back to Earth in one piece. The spacecraft can slam into Earth’s atmosphere while traveling at more than 17,000 miles per hour (27,000 kilometers per hour).
The Soviet Union’s Space Research Institute (IKI) ran the Venera program, sending probes to Venus in the 1970s and 1980s. Of the two Venera vehicles launched in 1972, only one made it to Venus. The other, sometimes cataloged as V-71 No. 671, is believed to be Cosmos 482.
The craft's descent could occur anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude, covering a broad swath of land that includes the whole of Africa, South America, Australia, the USA, parts of Canada, parts of Europe, and parts of Asia. If Cosmos 482 lands after its final descent, onlookers are advised to keep their distance due to potential dangerous fuels. “Contact the authorities,” urged Marlon Sorge, a space debris expert with The Aerospace Corporation. “Please don’t mess with it.”
Legally speaking, the object belongs to Russia under the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which states that the nation that launched an object to space retains ownership and responsibility for it, even if it crashes back to Earth decades later.
While the risk of Cosmos 482 causing injury or death upon impact is about 0.4 in 10,000, according to Aerospace, it is still important for the public to remain aware. “While the risk is nonzero, any one individual on Earth is far likelier to be struck by lightning than to be injured by Cosmos 482,” the organization states. “We definitely do not expect Cosmos 482 to land in your yard specifically.”
Experts have been tracking Cosmos 482 for years as its orbital path has slowly reached lower altitudes, a result of the subtle atmospheric drag that exists even hundreds of miles away from Earth. The estimated time frame of the vehicle’s final descent will narrow as the event approaches, as noted by LaDonna Davis, director of public affairs with the United States Space Force, who stated that the probe should re-enter Earth’s atmosphere at 19.2 degrees latitude, 300.8 degrees longitude.
Marco Langbroek, a lecturer on space situational awareness at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, has been tracking the probe and estimates that it should enter the atmosphere around 2:30 a.m. EDT on May 10, 2025. However, the reentry is an uncontrolled one, and as Langbroek noted, “At the moment, we cannot say with any degree of certainty when and where the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft exactly will re-enter.”
Despite the uncertainty, the spacecraft's design gives it a better chance of surviving reentry than many other pieces of space debris. Cosmos 482 has a substantial heat shield that protects it from the intense temperatures and pressures that can build up during reentry. This is particularly important given that it was designed to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus, where the atmosphere is 90 times denser than Earth’s.
As the world finds itself in a new space race, with commercial companies like SpaceX launching hundreds of satellites into orbit each year, the issue of space debris has become increasingly critical. Safety standards have drastically improved since the 20th-century space race when the Soviet Venus probe was launched, but incidents like the impending impact event serve as a reminder of the ongoing challenges.
Parker Wishik, a spokesperson for The Aerospace Corporation, emphasized the importance of understanding the implications of space activities, stating, “What goes up must come down. What you put up in space today might affect us for decades to come.”
As the reentry of Cosmos 482 approaches, the public is encouraged to stay informed through various tracking resources. The EU Space Surveillance and Tracking Operation Centers (EU SST) is also monitoring the craft’s reentry and providing updates through its website and social media platforms.
So, as the world watches this historic relic of the space race make its unexpected return, the eyes of astronomers and space enthusiasts alike remain fixed on the skies, hoping for a safe and uneventful descent.
