On the morning of May 10, 2025, the deorbitation of the Soviet satellite Kosmos 482 was anticipated to occur over Poland, specifically near Zielona Góra and Piotrków Trybunalski. Recent predictions from the European Union Space Surveillance and Tracking (EU SST) indicated that the satellite would enter the Earth's atmosphere around 8:06 AM CEST, with an uncertainty window of four hours.
The Polish Space Agency (POLSA) confirmed that the satellite, which weighs nearly 500 kilograms, might not completely burn up upon re-entry, raising concerns that fragments could reach the ground. This satellite, launched in 1972 as part of the Soviet Venera program, has been orbiting Earth for over 53 years after a malfunction prevented it from reaching its intended destination on Venus.
Karol Wójcicki, an astronomy popularizer and author of the social media profile "Z głową w gwiazdach," provided updates on the satellite's trajectory. He noted that earlier simulations had pointed to a potential deorbitation over central Poland, near Piotrków Trybunalski and Radom. However, the latest data suggested that the satellite would likely pass over Poland along the axis from Zielona Góra to Włodawa, with a flight time of approximately one minute and 23 seconds.
The satellite's trajectory had been dynamically changing, prompting POLSA to monitor the object closely for two weeks. As of the morning of May 10, predictions indicated that the satellite would fly over Poland twice: the first time between 6:38 AM and 6:42 AM CEST in the Jelenia Góra – Biała Podlaska area, and the second between 8:09 AM and 8:13 AM CEST in the Zielona Góra – Lublin area.
Despite concerns about potential impacts, experts reassured the public that the risk of Kosmos 482 hitting a populated area was minimal, as over 70% of the Earth's surface is covered by water. Additionally, the satellite was designed to withstand extreme atmospheric conditions, which increased the likelihood that some parts of it would survive re-entry.
Wójcicki emphasized that while the likelihood of the satellite entering the atmosphere over Poland was high, the exact location and timing remained uncertain. He encouraged residents in the vicinity to be vigilant and to listen for any sounds associated with the satellite breaking the sound barrier, which could be audible within a 50-kilometer radius.
As the hours progressed, the situation remained fluid. POLSA continued to update its data in collaboration with EU and US agencies, urging the public to stay informed and to report any unusual phenomena, such as loud noises or falling objects, by calling emergency services.
In a historical context, Kosmos 482 serves as a reminder of the growing issue of space debris, with over a million objects currently orbiting Earth. The satellite's re-entry highlights the need for ongoing monitoring and management of space traffic. As the legal successor to the Soviet Union, Russia is responsible for the satellite under the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.
Ultimately, the deorbitation of Kosmos 482 represents a unique opportunity for astronomers and space enthusiasts to witness a rare event. Although weather conditions on May 10 were less than ideal, with forecasts predicting partial cloud cover, many still planned to observe the sky during the critical hours.
As the clock approached the predicted time of deorbitation, Wójcicki and others in the community remained hopeful for a clear view of the event. He stated, "If the satellite enters the atmosphere over Poland, we could hear the sound created by it breaking the sound barrier. It's worth stepping outside and listening!"
In conclusion, while the re-entry of Kosmos 482 posed minimal risk, it served as a significant moment in the ongoing dialogue about space exploration and the management of space debris. As POLSA and other agencies continued to monitor the situation, they reminded the public to remain cautious and informed.
