A Soviet probe launched in 1972, Kosmos 482, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere on May 10, 2025, and it may fall on Polish territory. The probe was originally designed for a mission to Venus but failed to reach its target due to an engine malfunction shortly after launch. Instead, it has been orbiting Earth for over 53 years, and its descent is now drawing attention as it prepares to make its final approach.
The Polish Space Agency (POLSA) has been monitoring Kosmos 482 closely. According to their latest communications, the probe is predicted to re-enter the atmosphere around 07:16 CEST, with a margin of uncertainty of approximately 7.5 hours. This means the exact timing could vary, but two specific flybys over Poland are anticipated. The first is expected between 06:38 and 06:39 CEST over the Jelenia Góra – Biała Podlaska area, and the second between 08:09 and 08:10 CEST in the Zielona Góra – Lublin region.
"The object may not burn up completely, and its remains could reach the surface of Poland," POLSA stated in a recent announcement. This raises concerns among residents, as the probe weighs around 495 kilograms and has a diameter of about one meter. Given its robust construction, including a titanium coating designed to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus's atmosphere, experts warn that it might survive re-entry into our atmosphere.
The history of Kosmos 482 is quite fascinating. Launched on March 31, 1972, its mission was to land on Venus. However, just 125 seconds after ignition, the probe's engine failed, leaving it stranded in a highly elliptical orbit around Earth. Over the decades, some fragments of the probe have fallen to Earth, but a significant portion has remained in orbit.
In the early hours of May 10, 2025, the probe is expected to make its final descent, with independent observations suggesting it might be over central Poland—specifically the Piotrków Trybunalski and Radom regions—at the time of deorbitation. "The latest predictions from EU SST indicate that the deorbitation of satellite Kosmos 482 over Poland remains highly probable," said a recent update from the Facebook profile 'Z głową w gwiazdach'.
The probe's trajectory has been gradually lowering, and the time of its flyby over Poland has slightly shifted. The most recent update estimates that the satellite will pass over Poland for about 1 minute and 23 seconds, with a window of uncertainty now narrowed to just four hours.
As the situation unfolds, POLSA has urged the public to rely on official sources for updates, emphasizing that they are actively collaborating with international partners from the European Union and the United States to monitor the probe's descent. "The Polish Space Agency and responsible government services do not authorize and are not responsible for information published outside of official channels," POLSA reiterated.
The potential for debris from Kosmos 482 to land in Poland has sparked a mix of curiosity and concern among residents. Some are left wondering whether to watch the skies or take cover. The probe's design, intended to withstand extreme conditions, adds to the uncertainty surrounding its re-entry. While many satellites burn up upon re-entering the atmosphere, Kosmos 482's unique construction poses a significant risk of survival.
Experts from the European Union Space Surveillance and Tracking (EU SST) program have issued warnings about the probe's structural integrity. Given its history and the materials used in its construction, there is a possibility that some parts of the probe could reach the ground intact.
As the clock ticks down to the anticipated re-entry, the Polish public is left in a state of suspense. The combination of scientific curiosity and the potential for danger makes this an unusual event in the realm of space exploration. Many are now keeping a close eye on the skies, hoping to catch a glimpse of the historic probe as it makes its final descent.
In the context of international law, Russia, as the legal successor to the Soviet Union, remains responsible for Kosmos 482. The probe's long journey from its launch to its impending re-entry serves as a reminder of the complexities and challenges associated with space missions.
With the world watching, the fate of Kosmos 482 will soon be decided. Will it return to Earth as a harmless spectacle, or will it leave behind remnants that could impact the ground below? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the legacy of Kosmos 482 will be felt long after its descent.
