Southern California is grappling with the onset of drought conditions, disappointing weather watchers and residents alike who were hoping for the typical rain associated with this time of year. The region, which usually enjoys its rainy season stretching from October to April, has noticed increasingly dry conditions, with meteorologists now marking January 2024 as one of the driest starts ever recorded.
A stark indication of this trend came from the National Weather Service's Ryan Kittell, who stated, "It’s safe to say this is [one of] the top ten driest starts to our rainy season on record." The last time significant rainfall was recorded at Los Angeles station was back on May 5, 2023, when just 0.13 inches fell, hardly sufficient to nourish thirsty plants or mitigate wildfire risks.
Yet, January, historically one of the wettest months for Southern California, has been characterized by disappointing precipitation levels this year. The water situation evolved from “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought,” particularly impacting Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange, and San Diego counties.
Michael Anderson, the state climatologist for the Department of Water Resources, shared his concerns, stating, "Southern California remains dry. We’re being watchful right now. The [snowpack] numbers in the Central and Southern Sierra aren't where we want them, and certainly the outlooks are not favoring much growth here in January." Indeed, the snowpack, which is typically a significant contributor to the state's water supply, is not meeting expectations, raising alarm among officials.
The extended dry spell is expected to continue, with forecasts indicating little chance of immediate relief. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center expects Southern California to remain beneath average rainfall patterns for the entirety of January. Conditions are particularly precarious as the risk of wildfires increases significantly due to the dry vegetation, which has persisted throughout the fall and winter months.
Compounding these worries, Kittell cautioned about the usual four inches of rainfall typically expected this time of year, stating, "Typically we see, at this time of year, close to 4 inches of rain, which would usually be enough to squash any significant fire weather concerns. But because we haven’t had anything close tothat, and because we’ve had a really active two years [of plant growth], there’s a lot to burn.”
Historical records also echo these fears, with the South Coast hydrologic region managing only ten prior water years starting with under one inch of rainfall by January. Unfortunately, most of those years failed to recover and catch up by the end of the rainy season. Andy Reising, manager for DWR's snow surveys and water supply forecasting unit, reflected on these issues, noting the stark differences across the state. "There’s been quite a gradient in the amount of precipitation... so far this year,” pointing out how Northern California has experienced above-average rainfall, contrasting sharply with the predicament faced by the Southland.
Despite the disheartening statistics, there is always hope for rain, and officials are holding it close. Anderson remarked on prior years' dramatic swings from drought to wetter conditions, recalling last year's miraculous March storm, which reversed much of the negative impacts of low rainfall earlier. "One big storm does change the narrative quite quickly," he added optimistically.
The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California has prepared diligently for potential dry seasons. Deven Upadhyay, the interim general manager, noted their proactive stance, stating, "While it is still too early to tell how this water year will shape up...we’ve made investments...to reduce our dependence on the amount of water we receive from our imported sources. We are well-positioned to meet our water demands this year." This fortifies the region's resolve to tackle any arising challenges head-on.
The uncertainty remains, with experts emphasizing the unpredictability of California's dry and wet weather cycles. Michael Anderson pointed out, "We do have the benefit of the previous two years being wet... helping restore some of the water...in some of the groundwater systems. But if the dry weather persists, stress is likely to increase.”
No matter what the next few months bring, Southern California residents remain vigilant and hopeful. They are all too familiar with the pulse of drought, made evident by recent history, leading to rapid swings from dry spells to wet seasons. And as the clock ticks on winter 2024, everyone is keeping their fingers crossed for timely rains to alleviate the grave concerns of drought looming over the region.