Southern California is bracing for what is being described as the strongest winter storm of the season, with meteorologists warning about significant rainfall, mudslides, and flooding as it approaches. The storm, attributed to an atmospheric river, is likely to bring heavy rain and substantial snowfall across the region starting Thursday, and the impact will be especially perilous for areas recently ravaged by wildfires.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), residents should expect between 2 to 4 inches of rain across several counties, including Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara, with up to 5 inches possible near the burn scar areas from the Eaton and Palisades fires. "This will be the worrisome portion of the storm, as rainfall rates near one inch per hour will be possible," warned Andrew Rorke, a meteorologist with the NWS.
Governor Gavin Newsom is directing state resources to prepare for potential disaster outcomes from this looming storm system. Authorities are emphasizing the need for residents, especially those living near burn scars, to stay vigilant and prepared for sudden evacuation orders. After surveying preparation efforts on the ground, Newsom reported, "Our city departments are on high alert," reflecting the urgency felt by officials statewide.
The storm is predicted to hit its peak impact on Thursday afternoon, with rainfall and wind reaching their highest levels from Thursday evening through early Friday morning. According to NWS meteorologist Ryan Kittell, "If nothing else, expect lots of slick roads, lots of traffic accidents. There will be some roadway flooding." He added, “Thursday is just not a great day to be on the road.”
Flash flooding and mudslides are significant risks as the soil is still vulnerable from previous fires. Approximately 7,500 feet of concrete barriers and over 6,500 sandbags have been deployed to help mitigate potential debris flows. Residents living along the burn scar areas are urged to prepare for possible evacuation and should remain alert to their local emergency authorities’ guidance.
The storm will introduce hazardous conditions due to expected wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph, which could lead to downed trees and power outages. The most concerning regions may see wind induced by the cold front added to the perilous rainfall, leading to ground saturation and landslide risks. Meteorologists expect the greatest amount of rain to come between late Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.
Notably, the rainfall promises to be unlike the gradual moisture previously seen during this unusually dry season. Many experts express anxiety over the potential aftermath, stating, “With so many burn scars across the area and the rain having the character more of bursting type of pattern,” debris flows could be quite menacing.
Aside from urban flooding threats, emergency preparations including clearing storm drains and catch basins have resumed statewide to ward off adverse effects. The storm prompts not just worries for immediate hazards but also for debris flows, which can carry mud and rocks at alarming speeds. Even meteorological predictions suggest high probabilities of significant debris flow incidents due to intense rainfall rates.
Residents around affected burn areas have been instructed to monitor conditions closely. With potential risks ranging from minor road closures to major evacuation orders, those returning to homes previously evacuated due to fires are being advised to have a plan for temporary relocation. “Residents of burn areas who have returned to their homes may want to relocate temporarily,” Kittell said, emphasizing the need for caution.
The NWS has issued flood watches across Southern California as anticipation builds for the storm’s arrival. There’s even anxiety over potential thunderstorms associated with this storm, which could lead to unpredictable rain and exacerbate the already considerable flood risks. Therefore, individuals are advised to stay off the roads whenever possible and monitor local advisories.
The forthcoming days promise to be challenging, heightening concerns stemming from the cumulative effects of severe weather systems impacting the state through January and now moving forward. Local emergency officials encourage preparing food and emergency kits at home, especially for vulnerable populations. Although this storm harbors promising precipitation levels, its hazardous nature makes casual travel and outdoor activities ill-advised.
This storm serves as another reminder of how climate impacts our communities, keeping residents on alert and response agencies forearmed against the elements. Following the storm, forecasts predict possibly calmer weather conditions, yet the short-term focus will remain on managing the impacts of this approaching winter storm.