South Korea faces a demographic crisis of unprecedented scale, with its population projected to plummet by up to 85% over the next century if current trends continue unchecked. A sobering report released by the Korean Peninsula Future Research Institute on July 2, 2025, paints a stark picture: by 2125, the nation’s population could shrink from today’s 51.68 million to a mere 7.53 million. To put that in perspective, this figure is even lower than the current population of Seoul, South Korea's bustling capital, which houses approximately 9.3 million residents.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, the report forecasts South Korea’s population will only rebound to about 15.73 million by 2125 — less than a third of the current size. The average projection sits at around 11.15 million people, a dramatic decline that would reshape the country’s social and economic landscape. The institute employed an internationally recognized age-cohort component method, factoring in birth rates, death rates, and immigration trends to arrive at these projections.
Looking at nearer-term forecasts, the report estimates that by 2070, the population could fall to approximately 33.6 million. This number is roughly equivalent to the combined populations of South Korea’s four largest cities: Seoul, Busan, Incheon, and Daegu. Such a steep decline underscores the urgency of addressing the nation’s demographic challenges.
One of the most alarming aspects of this demographic shift is the rapid aging of South Korea’s population. The proportion of elderly citizens aged 65 and over is expected to soar from 20.3% in 2025 to 40.1% by 2050, reaching nearly half (47.7%) by 2072. This trajectory would make South Korea one of the fastest aging countries in the world, with profound implications for its labor force and social welfare systems.
Experts warn that the consequences of this demographic transformation will be severe. Labor shortages loom large, threatening economic productivity and growth, while the financial burden of social welfare programs is projected to skyrocket as the elderly population expands.
In response to these alarming trends, South Korea’s Ministry of Health and Welfare announced an ambitious plan to spend 88.5 trillion won (approximately 64.8 billion USD) in 2025 aimed at boosting the birth rate and mitigating the effects of a rapidly aging society. Of this budget, 28.6 trillion won is earmarked for projects supporting childbirth, including direct cash subsidies for newborns and their parents. An additional 12.2 trillion won will fund local population programs designed to address demographic issues at the community level.
Despite these efforts, South Korea’s birth rate remains critically low at 0.79 children per woman — one of the lowest rates globally. This low fertility rate is a key driver behind the population decline, but it is not the only factor. Experts point to a cumulative effect: fewer young people today means fewer potential parents tomorrow, which in turn leads to even lower birth rates in subsequent generations.
Social attitudes also play a significant role. A survey analyzing over 60,000 posts from young workers on the Blind app revealed that the primary concerns about marriage and childbearing revolve around financial stability and housing availability, rather than romantic considerations. Economic pressures have become the decisive factor for many young South Koreans when deciding whether to start a family.
Given these complex challenges, the Korean Peninsula Future Research Institute recommends a multifaceted approach. This includes expanding policies to alleviate the financial burden of childbirth, reforming immigration policies to supplement the shrinking workforce, raising the retirement age to keep older citizens economically active longer, and restructuring the economy to reduce reliance on population growth for economic vitality.
The demographic crisis facing South Korea is not just a matter of numbers; it is a profound transformation that will touch every aspect of society. From the shrinking labor pool to the soaring costs of elder care, the nation must confront these realities head-on with innovative policies and societal shifts. Without decisive action, the projections suggest a future where South Korea’s population is a shadow of its former self, fundamentally altering the country’s identity and global standing.
