Rising tensions over territorial disputes and military maneuvers are making the South China Sea one of the world's most contentious maritime regions. Recent events have drawn the attention of various countries, with the Philippines and China at the forefront of these disputes.
The Philippines' coast guard recently reported the presence of three Chinese research vessels identified as the Xiang Yang Hong 3, Xiang Yang Hong 10, and Jia Geng, which were observed entering Philippine territorial waters. This got everyone talking. Philippine coast guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela was quick to remind the world of these vessels' dubious reputation, labeling them as potential “spy ships.” According to Tarriela, these ships were spotted operating about 257 nautical miles from Santa Ana, Cagayan province, sparking concerns over their true purpose.
Specifically, these vessels were known to have entered the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) between November 14 and November 20. While international maritime law allows coastal states exclusive rights to explore and exploit resources within their EEZs—which extend 200 nautical miles from the coast—Chinese vessels’ incursions are viewed as aggressive moves undermining the Philippines’ sovereignty.
The stakes were raised when Tarriela shared footage of what appeared to be Chinese navy helicopters harassing Philippine fishing vessels near the disputed Iroquois Reef, underlining the increasingly confrontational nature of the situation. This has raised alarms, especially as China's claims to the region's vast resources continue to conflict with those of its Southeast Asian neighbors, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.
But it’s not just the Philippines feeling the heat. Maritime tensions are also flaring between China and Indonesia, with Jakarta announcing plans for joint development areas amid competing claims over the nine-dash line—a line Beijing uses to delineate its claims to the majority of the South China Sea. Indonesian officials stated their commitment to sovereignty, emphasizing their stance on no shifting of positions over their territorial waters. Yet, the recent joint statement with China has caused concern among international observers who see it as tacit acknowledgment of China's expansive claims.
Even aside from these regional conflicts, military activity has increased significantly. Recently, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed serious concerns over the presence of Russian military assets within the disputed waters, particularly following the sighting of the Russian submarine, UFA 490. This submarine was recorded about 148 kilometers off the coast of the Philippines near Cape Calavite, prompting the Philippine Navy to dispatch surveillance aircraft and naval vessels to monitor the vessel. Although officials indicated the submarine’s presence was “not alarming,” their response highlights the unique challenges posed by not only North and South China Sea naval activities but also growing Russian involvement.
Compounded by military patrols and maneuvers, China’s enhancement of maritime surveillance through research vessels continues to spark accusations of espionage from regional players. A recent study by the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies noted over 80% of Chinese survey vessels engaged since 2020 exhibited suspicious behavior, prompting concerns over their purported scientific missions.
At the same time, there are larger geopolitical ramifications at play. Despite the 2016 United Nations tribunal ruling which invalidated Beijing’s expansive territorial claims, China has continued to assert its dominance, ensuring its military presence is felt throughout contested waters—these actions not only infuriate the Philippines but also frighten its allies, such as the U.S., which has reaffirmed its position of ensuring freedom of navigation within the area.
Struggling to maintain any form of influence, the Philippines has been adamant about defending its territorial sovereignty, yet many feel its efforts may fall flat without resolute international backing. On November 14, Manila protested China’s new baselines claimed around Scarborough Shoal when Beijing submitted its claims to the UN—notably underlining the Philippines’ sovereignty over the shoal, which China has controlled since 2012.
Through this complex web of overlapping claims and military brinkmanship, the South China Sea exhibits all the signs of being not just a local flashpoint but potentially something larger, worthy of continued international scrutiny amid rising global tensions and shifting alliances.
It remains to be seen how regional players will respond moving forward. Will the Philippines be able to maintain the upper hand over the contested waters? Will Indonesia solidify its stance against the encroachment of Chinese vessels? Or will military might reign supreme, complicate more peaceful methods, and set the stage for broader escalation? The coming months will be pivotal as nations navigate this increasingly treacherous maritime chess game.
