South Africa's national and provincial elections on May 29, 2024, are poised to go down in history as the moment the country's political foundations were irreversibly shaken. Coinciding with the 30th anniversary of the 1994 democratic elections—seen as the end of apartheid and the dawn of majority rule—the 2024 elections have undeniably upended the political status quo, ushering in era of coalition governance and splintered loyalties.
The most significant development was the African National Congress's (ANC) loss of its majority for the first time since democracy's inception. This crushing defeat, reflecting growing public discontent with the ANC's leadership, left the once-powerful party holding just 40% of the vote. Various factors contributed to this decline, including notable corruption scandals, worsening energy crises plunging the country back to darkness, chronic water shortages, and stalling economic conditions. Pre-election polls had forecasted the ANC’s dip below 50%, but the true extent of its downfall was starkly illustrated by the results.
The ANC’s historical loss compelled it to form its first coalition government—an unprecedented move since it first took office. This new assembly, branded as a government of national unity, melds together various parties, including the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the Freedom Front Plus, Build One South Africa (BOSA), the Patriotic Alliance, and the United Democratic Movement (UDM).
Even amid victory, many ANC loyalists felt outrage; the idea of partnering with organizations previously linked to the apartheid regime was perceived as betraying the principles of liberation and unity. Yet, the most formidable blow to the ANC emanated from within its ranks itself. Former President Jacob Zuma's launch of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party—named after the ANC's previous armed wing—marked the transformation of internal dissent to electoral challenge. This splinter group has attracted disillusioned ANC voters and captured around 14% of the national vote, establishing solid support bases particularly within KwaZulu-Natal.
Zuma's vocal opposition to incumbent ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa only intensified existing tensions within the party, as his campaign siphoned off votes and undermined Ramaphosa's authority. Despite holding onto his ANC membership, the former president's parallel movement has complicated the electoral narrative significantly.
The 2024 elections saw increased political fragmentation with 52 parties contesting the national ballot, emphasizing the unstable nature of South Africa's political climate. Voter turnout plummeted to 58.6%, highlighting public disillusionment and resentment toward the political class, significantly impacting the once-reliable supporter base of the ANC and other traditional parties.
While the DA secured its position as the official opposition with 21.8% of the vote, it failed to hit its goal of reaching 30%. Similarly, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) saw losses, claiming just 9%, undermined by the MK Party's successful outreach to voters. The MK Party leveraged its appeals for radical changes—such as the nationalization of mines and land expropriation—to resonate with those yearning for immediate transformation.
Despite allegations of electoral fraud from Zuma’s faction, the MK Party's rise underscored the populist alternatives gaining traction among voters. These elections are steeped not just as ANC’s decline but herald the end of single-party dominance, making room for coalition politics to flourish. It becomes increasingly apparent, through the collective votes of the ANC, MK Party, and EFF, where 65% of the electorate showed support for leftist ideologies.
For many young voters and the 'born-free' generation, 2024 became synonymous with the slogan, "2024 is our 1994." This statement encapsulates their yearning for another liberation, this time from misgovernance and unfulfilled expectations rather than outright oppression.
Now, as the ANC grapples with its diminished influence amid coalition governance, the political future remains uncertain. The 2024 elections will undoubtedly mark South Africa as it stands at a pivotal crossroads, and whether this new era brings the desired change remains to be seen. The collective hope of the electorate signals both the significance of the elections and the clarity of their demands for accountability and responsive governance.
