With just over a week to go before the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) adjusts the country’s official petrol and diesel prices for April, South African motorists can expect some welcome relief at the pump. The Central Energy Fund (CEF) has provided a predictive snapshot of fuel prices forecasting decreases across the board.
The DMRE is set to announce new prices on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. Until then, fluctuations can occur based on key economic factors that influence pricing. These factors include the average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate throughout March, and the average global price of unrefined oil.
As of recent reports, Brent crude oil prices have averaged $75 per barrel in 2025, a decline from $81 per barrel during the same period last year. This drop is driven by various factors, including increased US tariffs on Chinese goods and concerns over global economic growth. Annabel Bishop, an economist at Investec, stated that weaker demand for oil globally, combined with rising supply, is helping to stabilize fuel costs in South Africa.
Currently, the Rand is enjoying a stronger run against the US Dollar, trading around R18.06/$, down from above R19/$ earlier this year. This strengthened currency is bolstering South Africa's fuel cost stability amid global uncertainties. The weaker oil prices aided by increased production from OPEC+ and the US, are predicted to ease fuel costs and potentially help in moderating inflation.
Fuel price decreases anticipated for April 2025 include a reduction of 71 cents per litre for Petrol 93, 85 cents per litre for Petrol 95, and around 93 cents per litre for Diesel 0.05%. Diesel 0.005% is projected to decrease by 95 cents, while Illuminating Paraffin prices may fall by 87 cents per litre. To summarize:
- Petrol 93: decrease of 71 cents per litre (R0.71)
- Petrol 95: decrease of 85 cents per litre (R0.85)
- Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 93 cents per litre (R0.93)
- Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 95 cents per litre (R0.95)
- Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of 87 cents per litre (R0.87)
Despite an upcoming increase in the carbon fuel levy, which raises it to 14c/litre for petrol and 17c/litre for diesel from April 2, this is expected to be offset by the lower oil prices and a stabilizing Rand. Earlier in March 2025, petrol prices had already dropped by 7 cents per litre, while wholesale diesel prices decreased between 17.5 cents and 23.5 cents.
Moreover, current indications suggest that the expected petrol price decrease could range between 72 cents and 85 cents, with diesel dropping similarly. Any developments in international oil prices, particularly the latest news where Brent crude was noted to have fallen to below $70 per barrel at one point, will certainly shape the market dynamics.
Economic uncertainties, such as tariffs threatened by former President Donald Trump on Venezuelan oil imports set to take effect in early April, are also adding complexity to the predictions. The impending tariffs, applied across petroleum products exported to the US, could affect future supply lines. Despite these ongoing changes, many analysts are optimistic about potential reductions in tariffs.
The predicted relief in fuel pricing is seen as a much-needed reprieval for South Africans after experiencing four consecutive months of fuel price increases prior to the recent moderate drop. As it stands, the price for a litre of 95 Unleaded is currently around R21.55 at the coast and R22.34 inland, while 93 Unleaded is pegged at approximately R22.09.
The final asserts on petrol and diesel prices will be confirmed at the very start of April, with new rates taking effect at midnight on the 1st of April. Motorists across South Africa should keep an eye out for these adjustments with anticipation, as the combination of market factors and economic indicators suggests positive changes in fuel pricing.
As the adjustment date approaches, the implications of fluctuating global prices and local currency stability will continue to be monitored closely. The CEF will keep the public informed of any significant movements before the official announcements are made.
