Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the President of the Federal Government of Somalia, has made another significant diplomatic visit to Eritrea, marking his second trip to the East African nation within just two months. Arriving at the welcoming embrace of Eritrea's President Isaias Afwerki at the Eritrean International Airport on December 26, 2024, this visit reinforces the growing ties between the two nations amid shifting regional dynamics.
The Eritrean Ministry of Information reported the red-carpet reception of President Mohamud upon his arrival, emphasizing the seriousness of this engagement. Although specific details surrounding the duration of his "working visit" remain undisclosed, the discussions scheduled are of substantial importance. According to multiple sources, including SONNA, Somalia’s state-owned media outlet, the two leaders plan to engage deeply on enhancing their bilateral relations, security cooperation, and other pressing regional issues.
This visit clearly highlights the strengthening strategic partnership between Somalia and Eritrea, as it is Mohamud's eighth undertaking to Eritrea since taking on the presidency two years ago. One prominent goal is to bolster Somalia’s armed forces, with Eritrea playing a pivotal role not only as its neighbor but as a supporter of military training initiatives aimed at counteracting extremist threats.
The backdrop of President Mohamud's visit extends beyond ceremonial purposes. The tensions are palpable as Somalia continues to navigate the fallout from Ethiopia's contentious agreement with Somaliland—that provides the landlocked Ethiopia access to the Somali coastline, significantly raising concerns over Somalia’s territorial sovereignty. Mohamud has voiced staunch opposition to this deal, seeing it as an existential threat to Somalia’s regional influence and stability.
“The deal was very ambiguous and could be detrimental to Somali interests and sovereignty,” stated a top advisor to Eritrea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as reported by the BBC. This sentiment is echoed by many analysts who view the move as Ethiopia asserting its power within the region, potentially sidelining Somalia.
Both leaders will also address the broader diplomatic engagements involving Egypt, which has strengthened its ties with Eritrea and Somalia as part of a strategic push against perceived Ethiopian expansionism. Last October, at the tripartite summit held in Eritrea, the three nations formalized agreements on cooperative security and counter-terrorism initiatives, clearly indicating their strategic alignment against shared regional threats.
With Ethiopia advocating for enhanced access to the coast through its partnership with Somaliland, the collaboration between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt exemplifies the shifting balance of power within the Horn of Africa. Skepticism surrounds Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, especially since they come on the heels of recent military engagements along its borders, which Somalia perceives as aggressive.
Recent military operations have reflected the fragility of peace negotiations. The tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia escalated, particularly with allegations of Ethiopia attacking Somali military bases. This backdrop of volatility lays the groundwork for why President Mohamud's discussions with Afwerki are timely and necessary. They could set the stage for more coordinated regional responses to provocations.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic arena has seen active engagement, with Somalia's Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi recently visiting Cairo, showcasing the multifaceted international relations Somalia is juggling. The efforts also come after aspirations for de-escalation via the Ankara Agreement, which sought to balance the interests of both Somalia and Ethiopia but left questions surrounding its efficacy.
On the ground, conversations about Somalia’s internal and external security needs are central to the discussions. The vision for Somalia’s stability aligns with Afwerki’s expressed ambition for the region to extricate itself from external interventions negatively impacting local governance and peace. “It is incumbent upon us to address and resolve our challenges internally, without external dictation,” reflected President Isaias Afwerki during discussions.
Afwerki reiterated the necessity of intensified collaboration to guarantee Somalia's peace and stability as pivotal for the region's long-term security. “Somalia's stability is key for enduring regional peace and stability,” Isaias stressed, underscoring the bond shared not only as neighbors but as allies against common threats.
President Mohamud expressed gratitude for Eritrea’s contributions toward strengthening Somalia's National Army and other sovereign institutions. “We can learn from Eritrea’s expansive experiences, fostering viable partnerships to secure our future,” he remarked, pointing to the importance of fostering trust and communication.
Analysts anticipate these deliberations will lead to constructive outcomes, helping both nations navigate the turbulent waters of regional geopolitics effectively. This visit is more than ceremonial; it aims to pave the way for potential economic and security collaborations as Somalia and Eritrea seek to stand stronger against external forces aiming to destabilize their nations.
The growing partnership exemplified through President Mohamud's frequent visits highlights the strategic importance of aligning efforts within the Horn of Africa. Ongoing dialogues will be key to not only ensuring national security for Somalia but also for promoting economic ambitions within its borders, fortifying its opportunities for growth through regional cooperation.
