Perfectly positioned between Eastern and Western Europe, Slovakia and Hungary stand at the crossroads of the European Union’s policy concerning Ukraine. On March 1, 2025, the leaders of these two nations made headlines by threatening to block any EU statements during the upcoming summit if the bloc did not include calls for immediate ceasefire negotiations and direct talks with Russia.
The timing of this stance is particularly contentious, as European Council President Antonio Costa convened the summit on March 6, 2025, to discuss defense spending and show solidarity with Ukraine, especially following U.S. President Donald Trump’s tense meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this week. Amidst this backdrop, Zelensky has also been invited to the summit, but he must navigate the complex relationships within the EU.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, known for his pro-Russian inclinations, urged the EU to abandon the idea of issuing joint declarations supporting Ukraine, proposing instead to mimic U.S. actions and enter directly with Moscow for negotiations. I propose not to attempt adopting written conclusions on Ukraine, Orban stated emphatically, reflecting his intent to leverage Hungary’s veto power against military aid and sanctions aimed at Moscow. This idea echoes the sentiments expressed by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has similarly questioned Ukraines ability to assert itself as strong enough to negotiate from power.
Fico expressed skepticism on Slovakia’s military support for Ukraine, emphatically stating, If the summit does not respect... other options besides simply continuing the war, the European Council may not be able to agree on conclusions... Meanwhile, he had halted military assistance from Slovak army stocks shortly after taking office but allowed for arms sales, highlighting the paradoxical stance of wanting to maintain conflict readiness without engaging directly.
While Slovakia and Hungary press for negotiation rather than escalated military actions, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on March 5 indicated the complexity enveloping Ukraine's defensive efforts, labeling it as a protracted, stalemated conflict, alluding to the U.S. involvement as similar to proxy warfare. No one has any idea or any plan on how to end the war, he pointedly remarked, indicating the diplomatic limbo faced by both the U.S. and EU. This raises the question of how quickly and effectively the West can respond if both Central European leaders defy broader EU strategies behind the curtain.
The uncertainties of military support intertwined with political alliances can be observed from across Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk weighed on the matter during his remarks at the March 6 summit. His positioning took on more of an overarching European responsibility, emphasizing the need to join and win the arms race against Russia to stave off larger conflicts on the continent. "There is no doubt... the arms race started by Russia... poses completely new challenges to us," Tusk stressed. He suggested Europe must adapt its strategy to face these challenges head-on.
Illustrative of this impending challenge, the European Commission put forth proposals to borrow €150 billion for member states to ramp up rearmament efforts. Tusk championed this idea, contextualizing it as Europe’s commitment to military innovation, especially as he noted, America is now a slightly more demanding partner. He underscored the need for European nations to awaken to their potential as global powers committed to independence and defense capabilities.
At the summit, European leaders are confronted with stark realities; with Russia holding control over nearly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and the looming specter of nuclear discussions being considered as part of defensive strategies, unity remains imperative. Macron’s cautioning of Russia’s threat reinforces these perceptions, even as Russian officials deride his warnings as exaggerated. The essence of unity is underlined as countries like Hungary step back, and leaders leverage their veto powers against collective security plans.
Consequently, the summit’s outcome will be pivotal not only for the immediate future of EU relations with Ukraine but also for establishing strategic responses against Russian maneuvers. With approaching dialogues expected to center on sustaining Ukraine's defensive posture, the undertones of skepticism voiced by Slovakia and Hungary will impose significant limitations on EU aspirations.
With leaders diverging on the pathways forward, the question arises—can Europe maintain its resolve against Russia, or will internal divisions stymie its capacity to support Ukraine effectively and assertively? The developments within the upcoming meetings will undoubtedly shape the continent's political fabric, merging decisions stemming from forceful arguments, complex alliances, and complex geopolitical realities—with both immediate and far-reaching impacts for the future.