Singapore's international trade saw a notable uptick in February 2025, with a reported increase of 4.6% year-on-year. The data released by Enterprise Singapore (ESG) reveals that this growth stems largely from a robust rise in both exports and imports, bolstered by a +5.4% rise in total exports and a +3.7% increment in imports. These figures were recent and came after a preceding increase of +6.6% in overall trade in January.
A more granular look at Singapore's trade indicates that the Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) surged by 7.6% compared to February 2024, reversing a previous decline of -2.1% in January. The growth in NODX was propelled mainly by expansions in Electronic exports, marking a +6.9% increase from last year, particularly in high-demand products such as Disk Media Products, Integrated Circuits (ICs), and Personal Computers (PCs), which saw gains of +40.6%, +6.9%, and +28.5%, respectively.
Conversely, the Non-Electronic NODX segment also experienced growth, with an impressive rise of +7.8% compared to the previous year. Commodities contributing to this growth included non-monetary gold, measuring instruments, and specialty chemicals, which exhibited significant increases of +106.9%, +23.1%, and +37.5% respectively. This performance suggests a robust diversification in Singapore's export portfolio despite challenges in global markets.
The total trade performance varied across different markets, most notably with a dramatic increase in exports to Taiwan, which soared by +77.9%. Other significant markets such as the European Union (EU27) and the United States reported increases of +16.7% and +21.5%, respectively. However, China, Hong Kong, and Indonesia posted declines in imports from Singapore. In contrast, the Non-Oil Re-Exports (NORX) advanced by +12.8%, driven by both electronic and non-electronic commodities.
Moreover, the increase in Electronic NORX was especially evident, clocking a notable +16.2% increase, with top contributors including parts of PCs, telecommunication equipment, and integrated circuits. Similarly, Non-Electronic NORX saw a +9.1% rise, with specialized machinery and non-electric engines leading the charge.
On the other hand, forecasts by Bangkok Bank's SCB EIC predict that Thailand's exports will grow by only 1.6% in 2025, a reduction from the previous projection of 2%. This decline is attributed to mounting global economic pressures and geopolitical risks projecting potential shrinkage in export activities throughout the latter half of the year.
In February, Thai exports surged impressively, achieving a 14% increase year-on-year, valued at $26.7 billion. Goods contributing to this growth varied widely, but a significant factor was the continuing rise in exports to India, which have regained momentum particularly post-pandemic. These exports included electronic goods, gold, and metal products experiencing highly favorable growth rates, showcasing the ongoing recovery of the global electronics cycle.
Despite promising figures, analysts caution that challenges persist for Thai exports, which are expected to face headwinds due to intensified competition in the global market and emerging trade policies from the United States impacting regional trade dynamics.
In the agricultural sector, Thai pepper prices as of March 25, 2025, were stable at VND 159,000 to 160,500 per kilogram across various trading regions. However, it was noted that although the price remained firm, underlying supply issues could contribute to a shrinking availability in the domestic market for 2025 compared to previous years. The price for peppers was around 68.4% higher than last year, indicating strong domestic demand against a backdrop of reduced global exports.
Current market conditions continue to reflect fluctuations with demand increasing in key regions, such as the EU, Asia, and the USA. Nonetheless, exports for the first quarter of 2025 are projected to hit a six-year low at approximately 43,000 to 45,000 tons, emphasizing the challenges faced by the Thai agricultural sector amid varying demand patterns.
Despite these challenges, the International Pepper Community (IPC) reported that the pricing dynamics in the international spice market have shown interesting shifts, with black pepper prices in Indonesia trading at $7,241 per ton down slightly by 0.36%. Similarly, Malaysian black pepper prices remained below their previous levels at $9,900 per ton, indicating potential pressures on producers amidst fluctuating market sentiments.
In light of these updates, stakeholders across sectors including electronics, traditional exports, and agriculture are urged to adapt to fast-changing global trade conditions, strategizing to capitalize on emergent opportunities while navigating inherent risks in the near term.
