In a week marked by diplomatic maneuvering and economic uncertainty across North America, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has declared that trade negotiations between Mexico and the United States are making “very good progress,” even as Washington’s talks with Canada have come to an abrupt and contentious halt. The developments have thrown the future of the USMCA—the trilateral trade pact binding Mexico, the U.S., and Canada—into sharp focus, with all eyes now on how the region’s biggest economies will navigate a shifting landscape.
President Sheinbaum’s comments came during her morning press conference in Mexico City on October 24, 2025, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the termination of trade talks with Canada. According to Reuters, Sheinbaum declined to weigh in directly on Trump’s move, stating, “Let’s wait to see how the relationship with Canada progresses... in the case of Mexico, we are quite far along.” Her tone was measured but optimistic, signaling that while the North American trade alliance faces turbulence, Mexico’s own negotiations remain on course.
Sheinbaum’s assurances were echoed in statements reported by Agence France-Presse, where she described the ongoing talks with Washington as “very advanced.” She elaborated, “We are making very good progress in reviewing the points they raised and consider obstacles to the trade agreement. We do not view most of them as such.” The president’s confidence was palpable, even as she sidestepped questions about whether Mexico would pursue a bilateral pact with the U.S. in the wake of the Canadian fallout.
The stakes could hardly be higher. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, is up for review next year. For both Mexico and Canada, the pact is a lifeline: Mexico sends roughly 80 percent of its exports north of the border, while Canada’s figure hovers around 75 percent. Disruptions to this trade flow could spell economic pain for millions.
Yet, the mood in Ottawa and Toronto has been anything but buoyant. Trump’s decision to end talks with Canada reportedly followed an anti-tariff advertising campaign produced by the Canadian province of Ontario for U.S. television. As reported by AFP, the U.S. president has already imposed tariffs on some Canadian and Mexican exports outside the USMCA framework and has threatened further penalties if his demands—especially on migration and drug trafficking—are not met. The impact has been immediate and sharp: Canada’s auto, steel, and aluminum sectors have been hit hard, with job losses mounting and supply chains fraying. Mexico’s own auto and steel industries have also felt the sting.
Despite the growing rift between Washington and Ottawa, Sheinbaum has maintained a pragmatic approach. During her press briefing, she noted that Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard would meet with members of the Trump administration next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea. The aim, she said, was to keep the momentum alive and “reach some agreements.” It’s clear that for Mexico, the priority is to ensure stability and continuity in its most vital trading relationship.
Meanwhile, Canadian officials are not sitting idle. Last month, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney traveled to Mexico City, where he and Sheinbaum reaffirmed their commitment to making the USMCA “fairer.” According to AFP, both leaders have explored ways to boost bilateral trade and investment, including plans to use Canadian and Mexican ports for shipping goods—a move designed to bypass the United States altogether for certain trade flows. Still, the numbers tell a story of their own: last year, trade between Mexico and Canada totaled under $32 billion, a figure dwarfed by each country’s trade with the U.S., which is more than 20 times greater.
In the background, the broader context of Trump’s trade strategy looms large. The Republican president has made no secret of his desire to renegotiate the USMCA on terms more favorable to American manufacturers. His administration has used tariffs and the threat of further trade restrictions as leverage, not only to extract economic concessions but also to push for tougher action on issues such as cross-border migration and drug trafficking. The resulting trade war has disrupted supply chains across the continent, with ripple effects felt from the factories of Mexico to the assembly lines of Ontario.
Sheinbaum, for her part, has not shied away from expressing disagreement with the U.S. on related matters. On October 23, during her morning press conference, she voiced her opposition to recent U.S. Armed Forces attacks against alleged drug traffickers’ boats in international waters. While she did not link these security concerns directly to the trade talks, the overlap of economic and security issues has become increasingly apparent.
Yet, amid the high-stakes negotiations and diplomatic posturing, moments of levity and national pride have not been entirely absent. On the evening of October 24, as Canadians grappled with economic gloom and political uncertainty, the Toronto Blue Jays delivered a much-needed morale boost by defeating the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers. The victory sparked celebrations across Canada, a reminder that even in turbulent times, sport can offer a welcome respite.
As the region looks ahead to the APEC summit in South Korea, the next chapter in North America’s trade saga is set to unfold. Sheinbaum’s optimism about the talks with Washington will soon be put to the test, as both sides try to bridge differences and secure an agreement that preserves the economic ties so critical to their shared prosperity. For Canada, the path forward remains uncertain, with officials weighing their options in the wake of Trump’s abrupt withdrawal from negotiations. And for the millions whose livelihoods depend on the smooth flow of goods across borders, the hope is that cooler heads—and common interests—will ultimately prevail.
For now, Mexico’s leadership appears determined to stay the course, betting that dialogue and diplomacy can keep trade on track, even as political winds shift. With the USMCA’s future hanging in the balance, the coming weeks promise to be decisive for the continent’s economic fate.
