Dealing with a bully is never easy. On the issue of tariffs, there is little doubt that the Trump administration has been acting like a bully to many countries around the world. However, amidst this turbulent backdrop, the Sheinbaum administration has been diligently responding to these challenges, showcasing both resilience and adaptability.
The Trump administration's approach to trade has raised serious questions. For instance, why is Mexico not cracking down harder on the drug cartels? Why is the country allowing so many migrants from Central and South America to cross its borders unabated? And why does it permit considerable amounts of Chinese goods destined for the United States to flow through its markets?
These questions highlight valid international trade concerns that the Sheinbaum administration has to address. With the U.S. outpacing Mexico in terms of trade volume—buying significantly more from Mexico than vice versa—the arguments for tariffs from the Trump administration have made substantial waves. The U.S. economy has a consumer-based focus that Mexico, laden with different economic challenges, struggles to match.
Among several key demands, the Sheinbaum administration has made strides. For instance, Mexico has expanded the 'Mexico Te Abraza' initiative, which welcomes returning deportees with support, including an initial stipend of 2,000 pesos. Moreover, the administration has deployed 10,000 troops to reinforce border control efforts to stem the wave of migrants, showing a commitment to U.S. concerns.
Yet, there are notable steps taken against drug trafficking. Under Sheinbaum's leadership, Mexico has witnessed a surge in arrests and drug seizures, specifically targeting fentanyl production. A more pronounced cooperation with U.S. authorities was exemplified through the extradition of 29 high-ranking cartel members to the U.S., signaling a commitment to collaborative law enforcement.
However, the administration's response to tariffs from the Trump team has been more restrained. As of March 2025, Mexico has yet to impose reciprocal tariffs in response to threats from the U.S. Instead, Sheinbaum has opted for communication strategies, emphasizing the economic repercussions for both countries should tariffs be enacted.
This nuanced approach appears to have worked—Trump has voiced positive remarks towards Sheinbaum, contrasting with his rhetoric towards other leaders. Furthermore, the president’s threats against Mexico, which included designating certain criminal organizations as terrorist entities and threats of military action, have yet to escalate; a strategy Sheinbaum appears to have managed well through a blend of firmness and diplomacy.
The diplomatic gains have helped Sheinbaum increase her approval rating to a remarkable 85%, up from 70% after taking office. Economic indicators also reflect this positive trajectory, with the Mexican peso recently hitting levels stronger than before Trump took office, a circumstance that few anticipated.
This diplomatic success has elevated Sheinbaum within her party, the Morena party, ensuring better legislative support in both congressional chambers. Recent policy discussions have shown moves towards reassessing previous economic strategies, as Sheinbaum's leadership emerges distinct from that of her predecessor, whose tenure was often mired in controversy.
Yet, analysts warn that while Sheinbaum's management of Trump and the tariff issue has been commendable, the underlying themes of power consolidation and economic vulnerability remain critical concerns. Trump’s broader tariffs set to take effect in April 2025 could severely impact Mexico’s economy, a fate both parties are scrambling to mitigate.
As Sheinbaum attempts to navigate this complex landscape of international diplomacy, her administration has sought to reevaluate Mexican economic participation within the North American framework, which has historically faced criticisms for its neoliberal implications. Strategies to forge closer ties with the U.S. economy and deter influences from China amid ongoing trade discussions signify a pivot in policy focus.
However, with looming challenges on the horizon, including domestic issues tied to security and corruption, how Sheinbaum's leadership will evolve remains a point of keen interest. The political implications of her engagement with Trump could usher changes within Mexico, fostering potential shifts in governmental oversight and judicial power that demand careful evaluation.
As the situation develops, the strategy employed by the Sheinbaum administration exemplifies the fine balance of navigating domestic demands while addressing geopolitical pressures. Brandishing a blend of calculated patience and proactive engagement, her administration aims not only to avert tariffs but also to reshape the narrative around U.S.-Mexico relations into a more constructive dialogue.
The hope is that through these efforts, mutual benefits can arise, aiding both economies as they endeavor to address cross-border challenges and enhance collaboration for the greater good of both nations. After all, it is through understanding and cooperation that progress can be achieved, even amidst the challenges posed by aggressive economic policies and unpredictable political landscapes.
