On March 6, 2025, the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) will witness its final OLIMPBET derby of the season as Severstal from Cherepovets takes on Vityaz from Podolsk. This matchup is particularly pivotal as both teams have something to prove, with Severstal currently sitting 6th in the Western Conference and eager to reclaim their position at the top of the standings.
Severstal has garnered 73 points after 60 matches but has hit a rough patch, suffering four consecutive losses at home. Their last victory came four games ago when they convincingly defeated Avtomobilist 4-0. Since then, they faced defeats against Metalurg (1-4) and Lokomotiv (0-5), and both losses to Torpedo, the latter ending with a close score of 2-3. The players will need to step up their game if they hope to make the playoffs. The puck drops at 19:00 Moscow time and will be broadcast on the KHL Prime channel.
Meanwhile, Vityaz finds themselves languishing at 10th place, having only earned 51 points through 61 matches. The team has struggled significantly this season, winning only two games since January 20, with their recent match resulting in defeat against Nizhny Novgorod (3:4). They seem to lack motivation as they approach the end of the season, making it imperative for them to strive for at least one more win against Severstal, especially after beating them twice earlier this season (2-0 and 7-1).
Analysts are predicting Severstal as the favorite with betting odds set at 1.65, indicating they are likely to win. A draw is estimated at 4.9, and Vityaz’s chances of winning are at 4.4. Expectations indicate the match will not be high-scoring, with predictions for total goals set at less than 5.5 at odds of 1.84, and the probability of both teams managing at least two goals each estimated at 1.7. This marks an interesting trend considering how both teams have played offensively throughout the season.
Vityaz's Dmitry Buchelnikov stands out as their leading scorer this season, amassing 50 points (15 goals and 35 assists). Severstal, on the other hand, has Daniil Aimurzin leading their scoring attempts with 53 points. Yet, it seems both teams have encountered challenges recently; with Severstal averaging 32 shots per match but struggling to convert them effectively, holding below par stats compared to earlier performances.
Veteran goalkeeper Alexander Samoilov has been the backbone for Severstal, boasting an impressive save percentage of 91.30%. While Konstantin Shostak has not performed to expectations, saving only 88.79% of shots, this disparity highlights Severstal's need for reinvigoration as they approach the playoffs. Two players, Artem Shchuchinov and Yaroslav Dyblenko, will miss the game due to injuries, which could impact Severstal's bench strength.
The match-up has seen high levels of engagement from betting audiences, with over 39,999 bets totaling more than 21 million rubles placed on this fixture alone. This statistic reflects how passionate fans are about the KHL and the anticipation surrounding each game.
Some key predictions from betting analysts suggest Severstal's win could very well hinge on their offensive dynamics, focusing on the need to break their streak of poor performances at home. The odds suggest they could score at least three to four goals based on their past performances at home, particularly with Vityaz’s struggles defensively. Historically, Vityaz's defensive errors have led to them conceding at least three goals in five of their last seven matches.
Both teams will likely approach the game aggressively, considering their pressing needs for points as they contend for playoff positions. The intensity of this matchup will undoubtedly reflect on the ice as Severstal aims to overcome their recent defeats and Vityaz seeks to regain some semblance of momentum.
The excitement and buildup to this derby match promise to keep fans on the edge of their seats. Who will emerge victorious? Severstal needs this win badly to stay afloat, but with Vityaz’s history of outperforming expectations, this match could surprise us all.