On Thursday, April 3, 2025, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) has released a detailed weather forecast indicating that stationary front number 37 will extend over northern Mexico. This front is interacting with a trough in the upper atmosphere over the northwest, a dry line over the northeast, and the polar jet stream, resulting in very strong to intense winds in these regions. Additionally, the forecast predicts scattered showers in the northwest and north, with strong rains expected in Coahuila, and a possibility of snow or sleet in the mountainous areas of Baja California, Sonora, and Chihuahua.
A low-pressure channel affecting the east and southeast of Mexico, coupled with moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, is anticipated to lead to isolated rains in Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Quintana Roo. Strong wind gusts are also expected in the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatán Peninsula. However, a high-pressure circulation in the middle atmosphere and low water vapor content will maintain a low probability of rain and hot to very hot daytime conditions across much of Mexico.
The ongoing heat wave is expected to continue in areas such as Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Michoacán, Morelos, Guerrero, Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. The forecast indicates maximum temperatures ranging from 40 to 45 °C in Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Oaxaca. Other regions, including Coahuila, Nuevo León, Durango, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Chiapas, Guanajuato, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo, can expect maximum temperatures between 35 to 40 °C.
In some areas, such as Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, the southwest of the State of Mexico, and Mexico City, maximum temperatures will be slightly cooler, ranging from 30 to 35 °C. Meanwhile, minimum temperatures are forecasted to drop to between -10 to -5 °C with frost in the mountainous regions of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Durango. In other mountainous areas of Zacatecas, Michoacán, and the State of Mexico, minimum temperatures are expected between -5 to 0 °C, while areas of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa (sierra), Nayarit (sierra), Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Tlaxcala, and Puebla will see minimums of 0 to 5 °C.
In terms of precipitation, strong rains and scattered showers are expected in Coahuila and Chiapas, while intervals of showers are anticipated in Baja California, Sonora, and Chihuahua. Isolated rains are also predicted in Baja California Sur, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Quintana Roo. Notably, possible snow or sleet is expected in the mountainous regions of Baja California, Sonora, and Chihuahua.
Wind conditions today are expected to be quite severe, with speeds reaching 40 to 60 km/h and gusts between 80 to 100 km/h in Chihuahua and Durango, along with dust devils. Winds of 20 to 40 km/h with gusts of 60 to 80 km/h and dust devils are forecasted for Sonora, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Zacatecas. In Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo, southern component winds (surada) are expected to reach 30 to 50 km/h with gusts of 60 to 80 km/h. Tamaulipas and Tabasco will experience winds of 15 to 30 km/h with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h. Other regions, including Baja California, Baja California Sur, Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, and San Luis Potosí, are expected to see winds of 15 to 30 km/h with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h, while lighter winds of 10 to 20 km/h with gusts of 30 to 50 km/h and possible dust devils will be present in Sinaloa, Nayarit, Michoacán, Guerrero, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Tlaxcala, the State of Mexico, Mexico City, and Morelos.
It is important to note that the strong to intense wind gusts could potentially knock down trees and billboards, posing a risk to safety in affected areas. Meanwhile, in Tijuana, the forecast indicates partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of light rain throughout the day, contributing to a cool and variable environment. Accuweather predicts a 60% probability of rain with an 87% humidity level. The minimum temperature in Tijuana is expected to be around 8°C, while the maximum will reach 16°C, with a feels-like temperature of 19°C.
Wind speeds in Tijuana are expected to be around 13 km/h, with maximum gusts of 35 km/h. The air quality in Tijuana today is reported to be good. Looking ahead, tomorrow’s forecast for Tijuana predicts clear skies with an average wind speed of 11 km/h, suggesting pleasant conditions throughout the day. Residents are advised to dress appropriately for the weather, considering the potential for light rain and the variability in temperatures.
In Monterrey, Nuevo León, temperatures have already reached between 26°C to 27°C early on April 3, with expectations to soar to between 39°C to 40°C in the afternoon under clear skies and very dry conditions. The humidity is likely to drop to 15% by the afternoon. The cold front number 37 currently impacting the region is causing the potential for snow or sleet in northern Sonora and Chihuahua. This front is expected to stall on the northern border today and tomorrow, advancing toward the northeast by Saturday.
As the cold front moves, temperatures are forecasted to significantly drop over the weekend, with maximums expected to be around 30°C on Saturday and 19°C on Sunday, with minimums of 11°C to 12°C for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. This represents a stark contrast to the high temperatures experienced earlier in the week, which approached 40°C. Notably, the probability of rain remains absent for the next 10 days across the region.
