As Italy braces for a wave of severe weather, the Protezione Civile of Emilia Romagna has issued a yellow weather alert for thunderstorms and strong winds affecting the Apennines on Thursday, April 24, 2025. The alert highlights the potential for locally intense rainfall, particularly on the Apennine ridge, where thunderstorms are expected to develop.
According to the regional civil protection agency, "locally intense rainfall is expected, also with showers or thunderstorms, more probable on the Apennine ridge." The alert warns that on the central-western hills, the weather phenomena will take on the character of intense rain with showers. Rainfall amounts are predicted to range from 5 to 20 millimeters in the mountainous areas, while the rest of the territory could see between 1 and 10 millimeters.
In addition to rainfall, winds of moderate gale force, reaching speeds of 62 to 74 kilometers per hour, are anticipated from the southwest. These winds may strengthen further on the entire ridge and the central-eastern hills. The warning also mentions that "in the areas affected by showers, there will be possible runoff phenomena and occasional landslides on slopes characterized by particularly fragile hydrogeological conditions." This situation could lead to rapid increases in water levels in rivers, exceeding threshold levels.
As the weather pattern develops, the forecast indicates that atmospheric instability will persist into Friday, April 25, 2025, with continued thunderstorms expected. The days following April 26 should see a return to more stable weather conditions, with little to no precipitation.
On a broader scale, meteorologists have noted that two weather vortices are expected to cross Italy from northwest to southeast, causing widespread deterioration in weather conditions and frequent thunderstorms until at least Saturday, April 26. This forecast marks a departure from the historical weather patterns typically observed during the Festa della Liberazione, which has seen more sunny days than rainy ones over the past 50 years.
An analysis of historical weather data reveals that out of the last 50 years, there have been 29 years of sunny weather compared to 21 years of rain during the Liberation Day celebrations. In 58% of the cases, the weather was favorable. This year, however, is showing a slight climatological anomaly, as the expected weather deviates from the norm.
On the day of the Liberation, April 25, the forecast predicts a higher probability of precipitation, particularly in the Adriatic regions, Lazio, and Umbria. Rain is also expected along the coasts of Campania and the Tyrrhenian Calabria, as well as widely across Puglia. The second vortex arriving on April 25 will bring further instability, especially to the Center-North.
In the northern regions, particularly in the Triveneto area, widespread showers are expected as the first vortex approaches from England. This will be followed by a strong deterioration of weather conditions in the evening, particularly in the northwestern regions, where heavy rainfall is anticipated between Piemonte and Lombardia.
As the weather system progresses, Thursday, April 24, will see a mix of conditions across the country. In the north, disturbed weather will prevail in the Alps, Prealps, and high plains of Triveneto, while other areas will experience partly sunny and dry conditions. The central regions will have a greater chance of precipitation, with thunderstorms likely in the Adriatic regions, Lazio, and Umbria.
In the south, rain is expected intermittently along the coasts of Campania and Calabria, and more broadly across Puglia. By Friday, the northeast will face the highest likelihood of precipitation, which may fall as showers. The central regions will see more unstable weather, particularly in the Adriatic sectors and along the Apennines, while the Tyrrhenian coasts remain sunny.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the forecast suggests that Saturday, April 26, will bring generally good weather to the north, while the central regions will experience sunny conditions on the Tyrrhenian side with more clouds on the Adriatic slopes. In the south, clearer skies are expected in Sicily and Sardinia, though many clouds will linger elsewhere, with some irregular precipitation.
In Puglia, an alert has also been issued by the civil protection department for isolated to scattered rainfall, including showers or thunderstorms, valid from 8:00 AM for twelve hours on April 24. The expected rainfall amounts are categorized as weak to locally moderate.
As the weather unfolds, residents are urged to remain vigilant, especially in areas prone to flooding, and to stay updated with the latest forecasts from local meteorological services. With the unusual weather patterns this year, it is essential to prepare for the unexpected as Italy navigates through this turbulent phase.
