The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has raised significant alarms across Northern India due to forecasts predicting severe weather from February 15 to February 21. A cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam, combined with multiple western disturbances, is anticipated to bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and snowfall to several states.
The cyclonic activity will primarily affect the northeastern region, where heavy to very heavy rainfall is predicted with the heaviest downpours expected on February 19. According to IMD, "Heavy to very heavy rainfall is going to take place in northeast India from February 15 to 21 including Assam and Meghalaya." This alert encompasses states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
Details about the impending weather changes reveal widespread impacts. Specifically, Arunachal Pradesh is expected to see scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall and snowfall. Isolated rainfall is predicted for Assam, Meghalaya, and the other northeastern states over the next week. Thunderstorms and lightning activity are forecasted for February 19-20, especially impacting regions such as Assam and Nagaland. Gusty winds reaching speeds of 30-40 km/h will also accompany these storms, significantly affecting the atmospheric conditions.
While the northeastern states brace for rain, western disturbances are concurrently affecting weather patterns across northern regions of India. Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, and parts of Gilgit-Baltistan will experience light rainfall and snowfall activities particularly noted from February 17-18. The western disturbances, which develop from regions like north Pakistan, will lead to scattered thunderstorms and lighting from February 19 to 20 across these areas.
According to IMD, "Thunderstorm and lightning activity is expected" to be particularly potent during this time, putting vulnerable areas at risk. Further, isolated places, especially within Jammu & Kashmir and parts of Himachal Pradesh, are forecasted to experience heavy rainfall on February 20, joining the extensive weather shifts initiated by both cyclonic circulations and western disturbances.
The forecast extends to central regions of India as well, including Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, where light rainfall and thunderstorms will be significant. For example, East Rajasthan expects scattered light to moderate rainfall during the same dates. The IMD has also indicated similar phenomena for Punjab and Haryana, underlining the extensive reach of the western disturbances across the northern plain states.
Adding to the complexity of the forecast, fog conditions are anticipated to develop, particularly affecting Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Dense fog may disrupt transportation and possibly contribute to hazardous travel conditions during the early morning hours leading up to February 19.
Temperature trends remain somewhat stable across Northwest India, with no significant fluctuations expected for minimum temperatures over the next 24 hours. Following this period, there is anticipation of a gradual increase of 2-3°C. The same trend follows for maximum temperatures but will see variations across other parts of India.
Residents are urged to stay vigilant and updated with IMD advisories as the impending weather changes could create challenging conditions. The IMD strongly advises those residing in affected areas to remain cautious and prepared for extreme weather occurrences, particularly those forecasted thunderstorms and sudden changes brought about by the cyclone developments and the disturbances moving through the region.