Heavy rainfall and flooding are wreaking havoc across Southeastern Brazil, with varying degrees of impact being reported since at least January 27, 2025. The ZCAS, or South Atlantic Convergence Zone, has unleashed its full force, leading to dire conditions especially across the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo.
According to Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), there are warnings for 302 cities within Minas Gerais at risk of heavy storms through February 2. The alerts have been issued as these areas are expected to receive rain amounts ranging from 50 mm to over 100 mm daily, with gusts of wind reaching up to 100 km/h. This warning includes popular tourist cities like Capitólio and Camanducaia as well as major urban centers such as Uberaba, Araxá, Uberlândia, and Unaí.
The alarming forecast has prompted safety advisories from national authorities, urging residents to avoid staying close to trees during strong winds, to disconnect electronic devices from power outlets, and to seek secure locations during severe weather events. The latest figures from the Civil Defense of Minas Gerais indicate the flooding has reverberated through communities, affecting 139 cities, resulting tragically in 26 fatalities to date.
Evacuation efforts have been necessary, with approximately 421 individuals left homeless due to severely damaged homes and another 3,580 displaced, seeking refuge with friends or family members. Such significant distress has been attributed to the atmospheric phenomenon of ZCAS, which causes concentrated rainfall as it channels moisture from the Amazon region directly to the southeastern states.
The situation is poised to worsen as forecasts indicate the potential for rain levels equaling the entirety of February's expected total within just four days of the ZCAS onset. Climatempo reports suggest the heaviest rainfall will focus on the borders of São Paulo with Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, with expected accruals between 200 mm to 300 mm throughout early February. Extensive rainfall is predicted across much of southern Minas and portions of São Paulo, raising the risk not just of flooding, but also of landslides, particularly due to the soil being saturated with prior rain.
The areas particularly at risk include the southern parts of Minas Gerais and regions such as Zona da Mata and the Paraíba Valley. Experts stress the urgency of these conditions, warning about the precursors for potential disasters, especially since the land has already absorbed substantial precipitation previously, raising river levels and saturizing the ground.
Complications extend to urban environments like São Paulo where the rain continues to exceed average monthly totals. Reports show São Paulo has recorded 299.7 mm of rain, with heavy downpours expected particularly over the weekend.
It is not just Minas Gerais and São Paulo facing the storm's brunt; state officials have issued Yellow Alerts concerning the possibility of intense rain and winds of 30 mm/h to 60 km/h across 38 cities of Espírito Santo. Valid until the end of February 1, residents are cautioned against seeking shelter under trees to avoid electric shock or falling branches, confirming the widespread danger posed by this climatic instability.
With forecasts predicting no immediate respite, residents are left to cope with the brewing storm, taking necessary precautions to safeguard their health and property. The Civil Defense has urged all citizens to remain vigilant and informed on any updates disseminated by local weather authorities and government officials.
The imperative for action is evident; these weather patterns signify more than just temporary showers. They represent the climatic instabilities potentially rooted in global changes affecting weather systems worldwide.