In the heart of the Balkans, political and social turmoil has reached a fever pitch, with neighboring Serbia and Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska, both gripped by escalating crises. The summer of 2025 has brought an unsettling mix of violent street clashes, economic woes, and high-stakes political maneuvering, leaving the region’s future hanging in the balance.
Serbia, once considered a bastion of relative stability in the Western Balkans, has been rocked by nine months of persistent student-led protests. What started as a peaceful movement calling for snap parliamentary elections has morphed into a massive civil front, fiercely opposing a regime widely accused of authoritarianism and corruption. According to reporting by BGNES and the French magazine on the Balkans, the streets of Belgrade, Niš, Novi Sad, Užice, Valjevo, Čačak, and Kragujevac have seen nights lit up by fireworks, smoke bombs, and the all-too-familiar haze of tear gas. Sirens wail, people run, and the air is thick with fear and anger.
From his camp of supporters in central Belgrade, President Aleksandar Vučić has warned of the specter of civil war, even as he insists that such a fate will not befall Serbia. Yet, the regime’s increasingly heavy-handed response to dissent has only deepened the sense of instability. Pro-government media have labeled protesters as "gangs" and "savages," but on the ground, it is mostly students and ordinary citizens who bear the brunt of police and party enforcer violence.
The case of Marko Kričak, a former commander of the Special Operations Group, has become a flashpoint. Multiple eyewitnesses allege that Kričak violently assaulted students during a demonstration on August 14, 2025, in Belgrade. Speaking to N1 television, 22-year-old student Nikolina Sindjelic recounted a harrowing ordeal: "Police officers and masked individuals beat us with batons and telescopic batons... Most of them were in plain clothes. When they took us to the garage, they made us kneel with our eyes down." Sindjelic further alleged that Kričak slapped her, punched her against a wall, and issued chilling threats: "He said he would strip me naked and rape me in front of everyone." The Ministry of Internal Affairs has staunchly denied these allegations, insisting that all arrests were "in accordance with the law." Nevertheless, a new slogan—"We are all Nikolina"—has swept social media and the streets, galvanizing the protest movement.
For observers like Marko Miletić, editor-in-chief of the Machina portal, these repressive tactics reveal a regime teetering on the edge. Dejan Bursac, a researcher at the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory, warns that "police violence risks exacerbating an already deep political and social crisis." The unrest has not been confined to the capital. In Valjevo, about 100 kilometers southwest of Belgrade, angry demonstrators destroyed the municipal administration building and prosecutor’s office, while the offices of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SPP) were set ablaze. President Vučić, flanked by senior police and gendarmerie officers, condemned the violence as "terrorism" and promised "surprising decisions," as prosecutors vowed to punish anyone seeking to "plunge the country into anarchy."
Meanwhile, Serbia’s economic woes compound the sense of crisis. National Bank governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic presented data showing inflation at 4.9% in July 2025—twice the European average. Foreign investment has plummeted by 40%, and the country’s GDP per capita stands at €12,510, a stark contrast to the European average. Tabakovic has blamed a litany of culprits—ranging from international conspiracies to climate change and even students—for Serbia’s predicament. Yet, few in Belgrade seem convinced by such explanations.
The European Union has so far responded with caution. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos stated on August 19, 2025, "We are monitoring the situation with concern." But many Serbians, weary of platitudes, see this as insufficient. Analyst Fahriudin Kladnicanin argued that, “At a time when the political system has been delegitimized, the only rational approach would be proactive international mediation, accompanied by mechanisms to ensure the implementation of any political agreement.” Without firmer action from Brussels, Kladnicanin warned, the crisis will only deepen. “Elections are the only reliable way out. The longer they are postponed, the more the unrest will intensify.”
The coming autumn promises to be anything but quiet. Trade unions, emboldened by the student movement, are preparing a joint campaign for the right to strike and labor code reforms. University blockades continue, and the start of the academic year has been postponed until November. As Chedanka Andrich, president of the independent union "Independence," put it, "the fall will be dynamic."
Across the border in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Serb entity of Republika Srpska faces its own political earthquake. On August 18, 2025, Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic abruptly resigned after nearly seven years in office, setting the stage for a government reshuffle. The move came just days after the region’s powerful president, Milorad Dodik, was convicted for defying the international envoy responsible for enforcing Bosnia’s fragile peace deal.
Dodik, who has long been a divisive figure, called for a "national unity government" in the wake of his conviction. Yet the political drama didn’t end there. On the same day as Viskovic’s resignation, an appeals court upheld a ruling by Bosnia’s electoral commission that removed Dodik from the presidency and banned him from political office for six years. The commission is now expected to call early elections for the presidency of Republika Srpska, which must be held within 90 days.
Dodik, however, seems determined to cling to power. He has announced a series of referendums, with the first set for September to decide whether he remains in office. He has also threatened to hold an independence referendum if talks do not restore what he claims is lost autonomy for Republika Srpska. "If it does not happen within a reasonable timeframe, if we do not see an intention to do so, the RS (Republika Srpska) will hold its independence referendum," Dodik told reporters.
Both Dodik and the outgoing prime minister Viskovic have been suspected of undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitutional order, after the Republika Srpska parliament voted earlier this year to bar federal police and judiciary from operating in the entity. The United States has sanctioned both men for threatening the Dayton Peace Agreement—the treaty that ended Bosnia’s devastating 1992-95 war—and for undermining the country’s sovereignty.
At the heart of the dispute is the authority of the international high representative, Christian Schmidt, who holds sweeping powers to impose laws and dismiss officials to ensure compliance with the peace deal. The Serb leadership, however, rejects Schmidt’s legitimacy, arguing that his appointment was not endorsed by the U.N. Security Council.
As both Serbia and Republika Srpska stand at a crossroads, the stakes could hardly be higher. The coming months will test the resilience of democratic institutions, the resolve of protest movements, and the willingness of international actors to step in. For now, the only certainty is uncertainty itself.
