The Ottawa Senators (29-21-4) will be up against the Tampa Bay Lightning (28-20-4) on February 6, 2025, at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is set for 7 p.m. ET, with fans able to catch the game through various ESPN networks.
This matchup serves as the third installment of their season series, which stands tied at 1-1. Notably, the Senators are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Lightning just days earlier, where they were unable to maintain their five-game win streak. That game saw Ottawa, playing as the +153 underdog, get outshot significantly, 38-28, highlighting some defensive vulnerabilities. For reference, the Lightning had previously been the -170 favorites.
With this match being of utmost importance for playoff positioning, both teams are geared up for another clash. The Senators currently hold a slight edge over Tampa Bay for the third playoff spot but face some injury challenges. Key players like Josh Norris, Jacob Bernard-Docker, and Noah Gregor will be sidelined. The team's depth will be tested, particularly with Shane Pinto also listed as day-to-day.
On the other hand, the Lightning have shown inconsistency, and their 4-3 victory over the Senators marks their resurgence, propelling them back within the Wild Card standings. They have not had the easiest time, with Anthony Cirelli also listed as day-to-day, but they hope to sustain the momentum from their last win.
Betting odds from BetMGM Sportsbook paint Tampa Bay as the favorites with a moneyline of -160, meaning bettors would need to wager $160 to win $100. Meanwhile, the Senators have odds of +135, indicating more potential reward for those backing them. The puck line shows the Senators at +1.5 (-190) and the Lightning at -1.5 (+155). A notable point is the game total set at 5.5 goals, with the over favored at -120, pointing to expectations of scoring opportunities from both sides.
Projected starters for the Senators are Linus Ullmark (12-8-2, 2.41 GAA, .915 SV%), who has made quite the impression this season. He has allowed two or fewer goals in eight of his last nine contests, boasting two shutouts recently as well. Tampa Bay will put their trust in Andrei Vasilevskiy (22-15-3, 2.30 GAA, .918 SV%), whose numbers stack up similarly, featuring slight advantages. Vasilevskiy has allowed three or fewer goals in his last seven starts.
The anticipated lineups reveal some excitement but also the reality of injuries. For Ottawa, the forward lineup features Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Claude Giroux as prominent leaders on the ice. The Lightning will counter with star-studded forwards such as Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, known for their dynamic offensive capabilities.
Head coach Pierre Dorion's Senators will aim for increased offense after their last encounter, where they controlled early momentum but faltered later on. The match on Tuesday embodied the need for Ottawa to capitalize on their chances; they scored only three times over their prior losses. Meanwhile, for Tampa Bay, this victory served as affirmation of their potential strength and consistency, particularly at home.
Both teams find themselves needing this victory. The Senators want to break free from their recent road struggles, which have seen them score only 11 goals over their last three games. A strong performance from Ullmark paired with enhanced contributions from the forward lineup may provide them the leverage to succeed.
Meanwhile, the Lightning is determined to capitalize on their home turf advantage, where they have performed well with 17 wins from 26 home games this season. If they keep their defensive intensity high and generate quality chances, they could climb back up the standings.
Forecasts project this match to be one filled with tightly contested plays and hopefully some scoring fireworks. Given both teams know the stakes, tensions will be high on the ice. Despite their previous loss, Ottawa has the chance to regain early game advantages and carry it throughout the match.
Overall, as both teams clash with so much on the line, the alertness to capitalize on scoring opportunities may determine the final outcome of this showdown between the Senators and the Lightning.