Uncertainty has taken center stage during the recent earnings season for the world’s largest semiconductor firms, as executives grapple with fluctuating demand influenced by shifting U.S. tariff policies and export restrictions on China. The situation has left many companies in the industry feeling uneasy about their financial forecasts and future growth.
In April 2025, President Donald Trump’s "reciprocal" tariffs were implemented but were paused shortly after, with exemptions granted for certain tech products like smartphones and chips. However, the U.S. government is currently investigating the import of semiconductor technology, which could lead to new duties that would further complicate the landscape for semiconductor manufacturers.
Just last month, Washington added more products from major chipmakers Nvidia and AMD to a list of items restricted for export to China, building on the Biden-era restrictions that have already created challenges for these companies. As a result, AMD announced on May 6, 2025, that it anticipates a staggering $1.5 billion in lost revenue through the end of its fiscal year due to export curbs on AI chips to China, despite exceeding first-quarter earnings estimates.
Super Micro also issued disappointing guidance on the same day, citing tariff and macroeconomic uncertainty, and stated it would withhold guidance for its fiscal year 2026 until "visibility" becomes clearer. As a result, its stock fell by 4% in premarket trading. Similarly, Marvell announced it would postpone its investor day from June 10, 2025, to a "future date in calendar 2026," leading to a 4.4% drop in its shares during premarket trading. CEO Matt Murphy explained, "We have decided to postpone our investor day given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment."
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which tracks a basket of chip stocks, has also seen a decline, down nearly 12% this year. Samsung, one of the world’s largest memory chipmakers, expressed similar concerns last month, stating that "demand volatility is expected to be quite high" due to changes in tariff policies and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. A Samsung executive remarked, "Due to the rapid changes in policies and geopolitical tensions among major countries, it's difficult to accurately predict the business impact of tariffs and countermeasures. There are a lot of uncertainties ahead of us."
Ben Barringer, a global technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot, commented on the situation, noting that the semiconductor sector is dealing with a "complex mix of demand signals and geopolitical headwinds." He pointed out that Marvell's decision to postpone its investor day "adds a layer of uncertainty at a time when clarity is in short supply," while Super Micro's weak outlook has also raised eyebrows. He concluded, "With macro uncertainty and export restrictions still looming large, the path ahead for chipmakers remains bumpy, even as underlying demand holds up in certain areas."
Despite these challenges, the U.S. chip industry is striving to demonstrate its technological leadership over China, advocating for greater access to the Chinese market. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang emphasized this point, stating that China is projected to become a $50 billion artificial intelligence market within the next two to three years. He warned, "It would be a tremendous loss not to be able to address it as an American company. It's going to bring back revenues, it's going to bring back taxes, it's going to create lots of jobs here in the United States."
For the past several years, both the Biden and Trump administrations have employed export restrictions to limit China’s access to American technology, particularly in the fields of AI and semiconductors. This has prompted Chinese companies to focus on developing homegrown technologies, with firms like Huawei working to create viable alternatives to products from companies like Nvidia. Other Chinese companies, such as DeepSeek and Alibaba, have successfully launched high-performing AI models.
In a recent interview, Huang acknowledged the competitive landscape in AI, stating, "The United States has to recognize that we are not the only country in that race, that we have competitors. We are confident people, we are a confident country we have confident companies, we are not afraid of a race. We look forward to a race. Just let us go race." He urged for a proactive approach, saying, "Now is the time when the United States needs to realize that we need to put the pedal to the metal ... we've just got to go for it. Waiting around, talking about it, trying to hold people back is not necessarily the best move. The best move is let American do American, let us go after it and win it."
Meanwhile, Trump's perspective on U.S. exports has also come into sharper focus. On May 6, 2025, he downplayed the importance of exports while standing alongside Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump stated that his administration could sign numerous trade agreements but emphasized that other countries need to negotiate with the U.S. to gain access to its market. He remarked, "We don’t have to sign agreements. They have to sign agreements with us. They want a piece of our market. We don’t want a piece of theirs."
According to data from the Commerce Department, U.S. exports of goods reached a record high of $2 trillion, $191 billion in 2024, making the United States the world’s second-largest exporter, behind China, which had $3 trillion, $577 billion in exports. The U.S. export value increased at a year-on-year rate of 2%, accounting for an 8.5% share of the global market, while China’s growth was 6%, giving it a 14.6% share.
Despite Trump’s focus on reducing imports over promoting exports, the U.S. led in commercial services exports in 2024, totaling $1.077 trillion, reflecting an 8% annual growth rate and a 12.6% share of total world commercial services exports. This data underscores the complex dynamics at play in global trade, as the U.S. navigates its position amid rising competition and changing geopolitical landscapes.