Scotland's ambition to reduce car use by 20% by 2030 has been termed "unlikely" to be met as the lack of leadership and inadequate planning hinder progress, according to Audit Scotland and the Accounts Commission, who issued this stark assessment on January 30, 2025. The public spending watchdogs have highlighted significant gaps since the Scottish Government set this challenging target five years ago during the COVID pandemic, when car usage plummeted.
According to the report, the current level of car traffic would need to reduce by approximately 7.3 billion kilometres, bringing total trips down to 29.3 billion—a level not seen since 1994. "A lack of leadership has resulted in minimal progress against the demanding policy intention," said Stephen Boyle, Auditor General for Scotland. He pointed out the absence of key documents, such as costed delivery plans and measurable milestones, which has added to the confusion surrounding the government's commitment to this ambitious goal.
The report resonates with various stakeholders, highlighting a potential disconnect between the Scottish Government's commitments and the transportation realities faced by the public. First Minister John Swinney had previously stated his belief last year the target could still be reached, albeit requiring "changes in behaviour from members of the public." Despite this optimism, the government recognizes it still has considerable challenges to surmount.
The report also underlines how the transport sector contributes significantly to Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions, making it the largest emitter, responsible for 28%. With public transport use decreasing and car traffic rebounding post-pandemic, achieving substantial reductions appears increasingly challenging. "We urgently need to reduce the number of cars on our roads if we are to have any hope of hitting our climate targets," said Mark Ruskell, a Scottish Green MSP. He described the findings as both illuminating and alarming, emphasizing the need for immediate action to promote greener alternatives.
Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop added, "It is challenging—since the target was set, we’ve had the interruption of the pandemic, which had major impacts on our transport sector." She acknowledged the need for more collective action and realistic assessment of what can be achieved, especially as work-from-home trends continue to decrease the reliance on public transport.
Further complicity emerged when the government decided to scrap its trial of eliminating peak rail fares—a plan put forth to incentivize public transport use. The trial was deemed unaffordable and ineffective, demonstrating the deep-rooted challenges of shifting away from car dependency. Despite efforts, including extending free bus travel for under-22s, concrete steps to significantly diminish car usage remain elusive.
Critics of the government, including the Scottish Conservative transport spokeswoman, Sue Webber, have criticized the SNP administration for its incoherent strategy. "Reducing car usage depends on providing efficient and affordable public transport alternatives," Webber stated, asserting the current measures have led to service cuts and increased fares, discouraging would-be passengers.
The discussion surrounding the 2030 target is broader than just transportation; it encapsulates Scotland's commitment to reaching net-zero emissions by 2045. With harsh assessments surrounding the effectiveness of their current strategies, the Scottish Government faces mounting pressure to prioritize tangible, impactful actions for sustainable travel.
Jamie Livingstone of Oxfam Scotland underscored the urgency of the situation, urging immediate and bold actions to transform public transport systems, making them the easy and affordable choice for all. “The speed of action cannot remain stuck in first gear,” he cautioned, as Scotland edges closer to the 2030 target deadline.
Failure to meet the reduction target not only jeopardizes Scotland's climate ambitions but also raises questions about the competency of current leadership. The path forward will require collaborative efforts across all government levels, with calls for clearer guidance and direction from the Scottish Government to local authorities, who are pivotal to implementing effective transportation policies.
With time running out, the stakes are undeniably high, as Scotland strives to align its transportation goals with broader environmental commitments, pushing for more sustainable solutions to avert looming climate challenges.