Scotland stands at a pivotal moment, marking ten years since the historic independence referendum of 2014, where 55.3% of voters opted to remain part of the United Kingdom. This anniversary has reignited the debate on independence, highlighting both the aspirations and challenges facing Scotland's pro-independence movement. Emotions run high as politicians and activists reflect on how Scotland has evolved since 2014, particularly against the backdrop of Brexit, economic challenges, and shifting public sentiment.
First Minister John Swinney, addressing the Scottish Parliament, emphasized the importance of learning from the referendum's legacy. He opined, "Even though I was devastated by the result, I am no doubt Scotland's independence referendum left us with an overwhelmingly positive legacy." He encouraged independence supporters to recapture the optimism of the early campaign as they navigate the current political climate, which is marked by dissatisfaction with the SNP’s handling of various public issues.
This decade since the referendum has not been kind to the Scottish National Party (SNP). Critics, including figures from within the party itself, argue the SNP has become mired in constitutional debates instead of tackling pressing societal issues like health care, education, and the rising cost of living. The Scottish Conservatives have labeled this period as one of neglect, referring to it as a 'lost decade.' Opposition leaders have urged the SNP to move beyond the divisive discourse surrounding independence and focus on governance.
On the other hand, grassroots campaigns for independence showed their resilience, with numerous rallies taking place to advocate for Scotland’s self-determination. A notable event occurred at the Scottish Parliament where the group Believe in Scotland organized demonstrations. Yet, the sentiment at these gatherings has shifted, with attendance dwindling from the thousands to just hundreds, raising concerns about the movement's momentum.
Among the speakers at the anniversary rally was journalist Lesley Riddoch, who acknowledged the decline, admitting, "We've got a situation where membership of the SNP's down, votes for the SNP are down, and attendance at these marches are down, let’s be honest." This reflects the broader challenges facing the independence movement as public interest appears to be waning.
Adding to the political complexity, during the anniversary week, opposition MSP Ash Regan's move to use the upcoming 2026 elections as a de facto independence referendum was overwhelmingly rejected by the Scottish Parliament. This sparked heated debates, with Alba Party leaders, including Alex Salmond, voicing frustrations about the SNP's apparent indecision and lack of direction for the independence agenda.
Polling from Survation, released as part of the anniversary discussions, shows 56% of Scots currently support remaining within the UK, marking notable headway for unionist sentiments since 2014. This data stings, especially for those who envisioned independence as inevitably closer now than ever before. Swinney, countering the negative sentiment, insisted, "We need to persuade more Scots about the benefits of independence. The challenge continues to be how to address their priorities outside of UK governance."">
The anniversary also highlighted disparities within public services. A rising tide of financial woes within Scottish colleges, the continued struggle with drug deaths—the highest per capita rate in Europe—and disappointing figures related to children's poverty bespeak larger systemic issues demanding immediate attention from Scotland's leadership. Critics argue these pressing matters are overshadowed by what they perceive as the SNP's fixation on constitutional change.
Moving forward, it appears the road toward independence may require more than just fervent rallies and passionate speeches. It necessitates meaningful dialogue on Scotland's pressing needs, revisiting the question: What does independence truly mean for the average Scot today? Influencing this discourse, Swinney, once again calling for unity, quipped, "We must present our vision of independence clearly and involve ordinary Scots who feel the strain of current policies, ensuring their voices are heard."">
Despite the internal struggles and the possible 'embarrassment' of decreasing attendance at independence rallies, supporters maintain the dream of independence remains alive. They caution this is merely the beginning of another chapter in Scotland's long and complicated narrative around self-determination. With upcoming elections and increased discourse around civic engagement, advocates of independence hope to ignite the spirit of the 2014 campaign, asserting, "Scotland deserves the chance to rule itself—now and always."
The atmosphere surrounding the anniversary has been described as one of mixed emotions—both reflective of past struggles and hopeful for the future, reminding Scots and their leaders of the work behind the message of self-determination. The coming months will reveal how effectively the independence movement can re-establish itself, navigate the political winds, and respond to public sentiment. One thing is clear: as Scotland looks toward its future, the referendum isn’t just history; it’s part of the living dialogue surrounding identity, governance, and hope for many residents.
