Scottish independence has remained a heated topic since the first referendum ten years ago on September 18, 2014, where Scots decisively chose to remain part of the United Kingdom, with 55.3% voting against independence. Yet, the desire for autonomy continues to simmer, reflected by public sentiment and political figures pushing for another chance to break free from the long-standing union.
Fast forward to 2024, and the aftermath of the referendum still echoes within Scotland's political corridors. John Swinney, the current First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) leader, expressed his belief at recent events, emphasizing the positive legacy the 2014 vote left for Scotland. During the commemorative events, he highlighted how, contrary to what many might believe, the experience brought the Scottish people closer to potential independence.
“If the result had gone the other way,” Swinney remarked, “I know I would have extended the same courtesy [to the No campaigners].” His comments carefully recognized the spirit of the contest, where both sides engaged passionately, albeit with heartbreaking outcomes for those advocating for independence.
Reflecting on the years since the 2014 vote, he acknowledged the challenges Scotland has faced—a decade marked by austerity, Brexit ramifications, and the cascading impacts of the global pandemic. “We can’t just regret the things we cannot do,” he urged. “It is time for us to start focusing again on the things we can,” he insisted, positioning the current political climate as one ready for renewal and optimism.
Among those revisiting the referendum's memory is Nicola Sturgeon, former First Minister, who led the SNP during the independence campaign. Sturgeon echoed similar sentiments, projecting her belief in the inevitability of Scotland becoming independent as part of broader changes across the UK, like the reunification of Ireland and greater autonomy for Wales. “I genuinely believe Scotland will become its independent nation,” she stated confidently.
Support for independence appears to have stabilized near 50%, according to recent surveys, even as internal dynamics within the SNP have suffered due to financial controversies and political scandals. These issues have compromised the party's political standing, leading to significant losses during the latest general elections, where they lost 39 seats.
While there’s palpable enthusiasm among some quarters for another referendum, opposition voices have cautioned against it, arguing it piggybacks on divisions from the past. Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, criticized what he deemed the failure to respect the 2014 referendum results, lamenting the persistently divisive atmosphere surrounding the independence debate. “The last ten years have seen the constitution dominate politics rather than the issues,” he remarked.
Scottish Labour's deputy leader Jackie Baillie added to this narrative, emphasizing the electorate's shift toward prioritizing issues like healthcare and education over constitutional debates. “The message has come loud and clear, Scots do not want another referendum any time soon,” she noted, calling for focus on pressing matters.
Despite the tumult of the past decade, figures within the independence movement remain resolute. Lorna Slater, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, expressed her commitment to ensuring future generations celebrate independence, rather than mourn lost opportunities. “We must do everything we can to celebrate our success,” she compelled, hinting at the notion of creating momentum toward independence by the time the 20th anniversary of the 2014 vote rolls around.
Yet, the reality on the ground presents hurdles. The Supreme Court has affirmed Westminster's jurisdiction over the referendum process, stating Holyrood cannot unilaterally call for another vote without consent from the UK government. This decision effectively sidelines the independence movement, leaving supporters grappling with what many feel is Westminster’s impasse to Scottish aspirations.
Throughout the years since the referendum, discussions around independence have often veered off course, reflecting broader shifts within UK politics. The Brexit vote itself reshaped many conversations about identity, democracy, and regional inequalities, raising questions over what it truly means to be part of the UK—or apart from it.
The aftermath of Brexit has served to crystallize some Scottish nationalists' views, who argue for independence not only as preferable for Scotland but also as necessary. “The harsh reality of Westminster control,” Swinney has argued, allows those advocating for independence to frame their case against the backdrop of London’s perceived neglect of Scotland’s interests.
The emotional pull of Scottish identity—rooted deeply within the history of independence struggles, such as those led by William Wallace and Robert the Bruce centuries ago—still informs many of the dialogues happening today. National pride, coupled with frustration over past injustices, heavily influences public opinion on independence.
Looking toward the future, political dynamics may continue to shift. With public sentiment toward independence remaining close to 50%, the independence movement is not dead. Instead, it is simmering, waiting for the right opportunity to arise. The legacy of the referendum continues to inspire, albeit with presence of caution, as Scotland navigates its next steps.
Contemplations about Scotland’s political identity and constitutional future remain active discussions among the electorate, as they balance their hopes for independence against existing socio-political realities. The challenges presented by financial scandals within the SNP only complicate these discussions, as the party seeks to regain trust from Scottish voters.
The feeling among many supporters is palpable; they cling to the reflections of ten years ago as both memorial and motivation, seeking to channel the passion of the past toward causes unfurling today. Whether this will lead to independence, or perhaps just more reforms, is still uncertain.
The aspirations for Scottish independence remain alive, even as its future remains uncertain. Swinney declared, “When we boost support for independence, we will be able to deliver independence.” It’s the kind of phrase meant to galvanize supporters, focusing on the path forward rather than getting caught up solely on the past.
The political stage continues to shift beneath Scotland's feet, and with it, the dream of independence does not dwindle, nor does it disappear. Despite the challenges, the Scottish people's spirit remains indomitable, as they navigate their identity and political aspirations within the broader framework of the United Kingdom.
