Recent polls indicate notable shifts in the Polish presidential election, especially with Sławomir Mentzen, the candidate from the Confederation party, gaining traction among voters. According to United Surveys data published by Wirtualna Polska, should the second round of presidential elections occur between Rafal Trzaskowski and Sławomir Mentzen, Trzaskowski would emerge victorious with 46.9% support, compared to Mentzen's 40.1%.
Mentzen stands out as the rising political figure, as he recently garnered 18.9% of responses from the latest SW Research poll for Wprost, surpassing candidate Karol Nawrocki affiliated with Law and Justice (PiS), who collected 16.5%. This marks a significant increase of 5.8 percentage points for Mentzen, as revealed by the same survey. His rise also aligns with data from United Surveys showing him gaining 6.5 percentage points compared to previous polls. Despite this growth, he remains third overall following Trzaskowski and Nawrocki.
The polls suggest impactful trends, especially considering the presidential election date set for May 18, 2025, and the ensuing second round, if necessary, on June 1, 2025. Notably, 6% of respondents indicated they would not participate in this election, and 7% were undecided.
The competition is heating up, with rising candidates making waves. Recently, political analyst Dr. Rafał Chwedoruk elaborated on Mentzen's emergence, stating, “Even if this poll doesn't hold up, the mere reduction of Nawrocki’s lead could trigger tectonic shifts on the right.” It’s becoming evident: the race for second place is tightening.
On the ground, Mentzen has been actively engaged with voters, having organized around 150 meetings across smaller towns, with significant participation reported. His campaign strategy involves focusing on less populated regions, showing promise as evidenced by the growing interest on social media platforms.
The dynamics among the candidates reveal intriguing voter preferences. For example, results indicate Trzaskowski is favored among women and older demographics, garnering 35.8% among women and 46.1% among individuals over 50 years old. Conversely, Mentzen shows greater appeal among younger voters, especially those under 24 (36.7%) and men (approximately 23.9%). Pushing back, Nawrocki leads among various female and older voter segments, demonstrating the multifaceted voter base.
Notably, recent data reveals propelled shifts with candidates like Szymon Hołownia, who has captured 7.9% support, signaling potential changes within the political spectrum as he remains on the path of gradual progress.
Interestingly enough, doubts linger over Mentzen as revealed by another IBRiS poll commissioned by Radio ZET, indicating over 50% of Poles are skeptical about his chances of reaching the second election round. This sentiment cuts across political affiliations, rendering doubts echoed equally among opposition and ruling coalition voters.
The results seem to show both opportunities and challenges for candidates as they continue maneuvering through campaigning phases before the election day. While Trzaskowski still leads the polls, the emergence of candidates like Mentzen showcases considerable variability, reflecting on the possibility of unexpected changes as the election draws closer.