Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports witnessed significant growth, posting nearly 13% increase to SAR25.38 billion ($6.76 billion) in October, per the General Authority for Statistics. During the same period, the kingdom's chemical products played a leading role, constituting approximately 27% of all non-oil exports, contrasting with fluctuations seen across various agricultural commodities.
Despite the solid performance of non-oil exports, the overall merchandise exports fell by 11%. This decline was primarily attributed to the drop in oil's share of total exports, reducing from 78.3% last October to 72.6% this year. Such shifts highlight Saudi Arabia's continuous efforts to diversify its economy, lessening the traditional reliance on hydrocarbon revenues. Capital Economics reported, "State oil receipts will be weaker and will add to the need to keep fiscal policy tight. We expect the Saudi economy to grow by 2.8 percent in 2025, which is below consensus."
Turning to the agricultural sector, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently announced mixed results for exports, particularly in wheat and corn, which saw increases, whereas soybean sales hit the lowest point for the current marketing year. The USDA indicated export sales for wheat reached 612,400 metric tons (22.5 million bushels), up 34% from the preceding week and 64% above the four-week average, driven mainly by demand from Mexico, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Meanwhile, corn exports climbed impressively to 1,711,300 metric tons (67.37 million bushels), representing a spike of 46% from the week prior and 39% compared to the previous four-week average. Major buyers included Mexico, Colombia, Japan, and unknown destinations, signaling strong international interest among diverse consumers.
On the contrary, soybean sales reported at 978,400 metric tons (35.95 million bushels) fell 31% from last week and plunged 47% compared to the four-week average. The decrease was fueled by notable reductions from unknown destinations, with China, Spain, Egypt, Taiwan, and Mexico being key markets nonetheless.
Rice exports also saw increased sales, reaching 95,600 metric tons, up 99% from the previous week, strengthened by interests from Iraq, Mexico, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Canada, underlining the complex patterns of demand faced by various agricultural commodities.
Despite the surge for some crops, meat exports witnessed declines, which is typical for this period leading up to holiday seasons as buyers prepare for 2025 deliveries. Beef net sales were down 85% from the prior week at just 1,100 metric tons, with increases primarily for Japan, Mexico, and South Korea. Pork sales also fell significantly, down 37% week-to-week, with export totals reflecting transitional periods among buyers as they adjust to market conditions.
The USD's fluctuators relative to other currencies, coupled with changes in supply forecasts, are influencing export demand. The USDA's next round of supply and demand estimates is scheduled for release on January 10th, which may shed light on upcoming market dynamics.
Overall, the observations from Saudi Arabia and USDA depict the changing landscapes of trade and exports, highlighting not only the successes but also the challenges faced by both agricultural and non-oil sectors. Saudi Arabia's approach to mitigate reliance on oil through restructured trade relationships and the fluctuations within agricultural exports present both opportunities and hurdles as fiscal and market strategies evolve.
