Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI and one of the tech world’s most closely watched voices, has set the clock ticking on what could be the most dramatic transformation in human history. In a recent interview with the German newspaper Die Welt, Altman declared that artificial intelligence would likely surpass human intelligence in every dimension by the end of 2030—a prediction that’s both electrifying and unsettling for many watching the rapid evolution of AI.
Altman, who accepted the prestigious Axel Springer Award in Berlin just days ago, didn’t mince words about the pace of change. “I can say with certainty that I would be very surprised if we haven’t developed a superintelligent model capable of performing tasks beyond human reach by the end of 2030,” he told Die Welt (as reported by 36Kr and Business Insider). For Altman, the future isn’t a distant abstraction—it’s a five-year countdown, and the finish line is drawing near.
He went a step further, offering a new and controversial benchmark for artificial general intelligence (AGI): Imagine a future version of OpenAI’s technology, perhaps called GPT-8, calmly announcing that it has solved quantum gravity—the ultimate puzzle that has stumped physicists since Einstein. Not only would this AI provide the answer, Altman speculated, but it would also explain its reasoning and what inspired it to tackle the problem. In a conversation with quantum computing pioneer David Deutsch, Altman pressed whether such a feat would count as true AGI. Deutsch conceded that it would be a credible benchmark.
But what does this mean for the world of work? Altman’s vision is as sweeping as his timeline. He predicts that 30% to 40% of the tasks in today’s economy will soon be performed by AI. “I can easily imagine a world where, in the near future, 30% to 40% of the tasks in today’s economic activities will be performed by AI,” he told Die Welt (echoed in CNBC and Windows Central). Rather than focusing on entire job positions vanishing overnight, Altman urges people to think in terms of tasks. Routine paperwork, scheduling, even parts of creative work—these are likely to be automated, leaving humans to focus on higher-level decision-making, empathy, and judgment.
Altman’s perspective is rooted in history. He cited data showing that half of all job positions in society change every 75 years, but with AI, this cycle will be drastically shortened. The nature of work will change fundamentally, he believes, with collaboration between humans and AI becoming the new norm. “Master the meta-skill of ‘how to learn’, learn to adapt, and learn to be resilient in the face of great changes,” Altman advised, reflecting on what skills the next generation will need.
Yet, amid the excitement, there’s a note of caution—and even humility. Altman acknowledged that while AI is already outperforming humans in many cognitive tasks, it still struggles with common sense and understanding the physical world. But the curve of progress, he insists, remains “extremely steep.” He set two key milestones: by the end of 2026, a new AI model will emerge that will “amaze” us, and by 2030, AI will be capable of making scientific discoveries beyond human reach. “If we don’t have models [by 2030] that are extraordinarily capable and do things that we ourselves cannot do, I’d be very surprised,” he said.
Of course, such rapid progress raises profound questions about humanity’s place in an AI-dominated future. Some, like AI researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky, have warned that superintelligent AI could treat humans as insignificantly as humans treat ants. Altman disagrees. “I hope that a general artificial intelligence (AGI) will treat humans like a loving parent,” he said, echoing sentiments from AI pioneers Geoffrey Hinton and Yann LeCun, who have argued for instilling “maternal instincts” in AI. “The mutual care between people, the degree of attention to each other’s actions, and the strong desire of people to interact with others—I think these qualities will become even more important in the world of AI,” Altman reflected. He stressed that aligning AI with human values is crucial, especially given the potential for unpredictable consequences.
But Altman isn’t just making predictions—he’s betting big on building the infrastructure needed to make them reality. This past week, OpenAI unveiled a series of blockbuster announcements, laying out a multi-trillion-dollar blueprint for the next decade. On Monday, Nvidia pledged to invest up to $100 billion to build a massive computing infrastructure for OpenAI, using millions of GPUs. The next day, OpenAI announced an expanded partnership with Oracle and SoftBank, with plans to build the “Stargate” super-data center—a $400 billion project that will span multiple locations and stages. By Thursday, OpenAI had formally partnered with Databricks, aiming to bring its AI capabilities deep into the enterprise market.
The scale of these plans is staggering. The “Stargate” project alone will require 17 gigawatts of power—enough to light up 13 million American homes, or the equivalent of 17 nuclear power plants. OpenAI expects to build 10 such bases, with the goal of meeting the insatiable demand for AI computing. The company’s internal forecasts are equally ambitious: OpenAI projects annual revenues of $125 billion by 2029. But there are challenges. The U.S. power grid is already stretched thin, and building new nuclear plants can take a decade or more. Altman has emerged as a passionate advocate for nuclear energy, arguing that both fission and fusion are necessary to meet the energy demands of advanced AI.
“I don’t think it’s that crazy,” said Deedy Das, a partner at Menlo Ventures, when asked about the scale of OpenAI’s infrastructure ambitions. “Because this is a crucial step in winning the race to general artificial intelligence.” According to Das, history shows that AI breakthroughs often come not from smarter algorithms, but from access to massive computing power. Altman’s ability to anticipate exponential growth trends and act early is, in Das’s view, one of his greatest strengths.
There’s also a hardware revolution brewing. Altman revealed that OpenAI is planning to create a series of small, AI-driven devices—heralding what he calls the third revolution in human-computer interaction. The first was the mouse, keyboard, and windows; the second, the touchscreen; and the third will be driven by AI. Imagine giving a computer a complex instruction—something that might take a day, a month, or a year—and trusting it to handle the task, only interrupting you if it needs your help. “Their appearance will definitely be great,” Altman said with a smile. “But that’s not the point. I hope that if we do it well enough, they will change the meaning of using a computer, change your work style, and your entertainment and lifestyle.”
For now, the world stands at the threshold of this transformation. The next five years will be decisive, not just for OpenAI or Silicon Valley, but for everyone whose life and work will be touched by the rise of superintelligent machines. Whether the future unfolds as a utopia of collaboration or a landscape of disruption, one thing is certain: the countdown has begun, and there’s no turning back.
