The Sacramento State Hornets (7-23, 3-14 Big Sky) will seek to end their three-game losing streak as they take on the Portland State Vikings (18-12, 10-7 Big Sky) on March 3, 2025, at Viking Pavilion. This matchup is set to tip off at 10 p.m. ET and will be broadcasted live on ESPN+.
Having faced tough competition recently, Sacramento State is coming off a heavy 87-60 defeat to the Montana State Bobcats, where Jacob Holt was the standout player, scoring 24 points. Meanwhile, Portland State enters this game on the heels of a thrilling overtime victory against Montana, having secured the win 79-76, largely thanks to Terri Miller Jr., who impressed with 21 points, 11 rebounds, and two assists.
This game has significant implications for both teams’ playoff aspirations. Sacramento State is currently at the bottom of the Big Sky standings and will enter the upcoming tournament with the last seed, regardless of Monday’s outcome. A win for the Vikings, on the other hand, would help solidify their position as they compete with Idaho State for the No. 3 seed.
Statistically, Portland State has been performing at a higher level, averaging 76.3 points per game, which is 5.8 more points than what Sacramento State concedes on average (70.5 points). The Vikings have also managed to outscore their opponents by 198 points this season, reflecting their overall offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Sacramento State’s offense has struggled, averaging only 66.4 points per game.
Dimers' predictive model gives Portland State a favorable edge with a 91% likelihood of winning the contest. "Our team has utilized the latest data to simulate Monday's Sacramento State-Portland State game 10,000 times," explained Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer of Dimers. He highlighted the prediction indicates Portland State is expected to win, with projected final scores around 76-62.
The defensive stats add another layer of complexity to Monday’s matchup. Sacramento State allows opponents to shoot at 44.4%, ranking them poorly at 217th nationally, whilst also allowing an average of 70.5 points per game. On the contrary, Portland State keeps opponents to 69.7 points and allows slightly lower shooting percentages from beyond the arc due to their defensive strategies.
Key players to watch will include Jaylin Henderson of Portland State, who contributes significantly with 13.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game. For Sacramento, Jacob Holt stands out as the Hornets' top scorer with impressive stats of 16.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game; he will play a pivotal role if Sacramento hopes to challenge the odds.
Both teams have varying strengths, with Sacramento State relying heavily on its three-point shooting game, averaging 8.3 made three-pointers per game. This is one of their few advantages against the Vikings, who surrender about 6.8 three-pointers per game. Sacramento State will need to capitalise on this to stand any chance.
The Hornets and the Vikings have exhibited stark differences over their previous ten games. Portland State has averaged 71.4 points, posting mixed results with five wins and five losses. Conversely, Sacramento has struggled considerably, averaging only 65.5 points over the same period, which highlights their urgent need for improvement heading to this game.
The stakes could not be higher for Sacramento State, who need to prove they can compete against stronger teams. A win could revive their confidence and set the tone for the upcoming Big Sky tournament. With so much on the line, the atmosphere at Viking Pavilion is expected to be charged, making for an exciting game.
Fans interested can catch the live action through ESPN+ or purchase tickets through Vivid Seats. This game marks the players' last chance to make a memorable statement before the postseason.
For Sacramento State, every game counts now, and with their backs against the wall, they will be hoping to pull off a thrilling upset against the historically strong Vikings. The next chapter of their season will undoubtedly be written on the hardwood this Monday night.