Aryna Sabalenka, currently ranked world No. 1, is set to face Bulgaria's Viktoriya Tomova in the round of 64 at the WTA Miami Open on Thursday, March 20, 2025. The match is scheduled to start at 2:20 PM ET and comes as part of a thrilling Day 3 lineup, featuring many prominent names in women's tennis.
Recent simulations conducted by Dimers using a proven tennis model indicate Sabalenka is the overwhelming favorite, boasting a 93% chance of victory. According to Dimers’ data analyst, Greg Butyn, the simulations were performed 10,000 times. Butyn stated, "Using the latest data, we simulated Thursday's Sabalenka-Tomova match 10,000 times. Taking into account recent updates and various additional inputs, we forecast Aryna Sabalenka with a win probability of 93% and Viktoriya Tomova with 7%." Additionally, the model projects that Sabalenka has an 88% chance of winning the first set, solidifying her position as the anticipated winner.
The match marks the first encounter between Sabalenka and Tomova, adding an intriguing dynamic as both players step onto the court. Sabalenka, who recently reached the final at Indian Wells, is looking to capitalize on her improved form as she strives for greater success at the Miami Open, a tournament where her past performances have not met her expectations.
Tomova, on the other hand, had a commendable first-round victory but faces a tough challenge in attempting to disrupt the high-ranking Sabalenka. Experts believe that while Tomova has the tenacity to compete, she may lack the necessary firepower to seriously threaten Sabalenka’s dominance in this matchup.
Betting odds further illustrate this sentiment. Currently, the moneyline for Sabalenka stands at -5000, while Tomova is positioned at +1600. For the first set, the odds reflect a similar disparity, with Sabalenka at -1429 and Tomova at +800. These figures suggest that sportsbooks expect a one-sided contest, aligning with predictive analytics.
As the WTA Miami Open progresses, Sabalenka will look to build on her recent results and gain momentum heading deeper into the tournament. Fans and analysts are eager to see if she can maintain her high level of play against an opponent like Tomova, who may come into the match as the underdog but is no stranger to surprises in competitive play.
In summary, this Thursday’s match promises to be a compelling contest, not only for the players involved but also for the fans who have keenly followed the rise of Sabalenka as one of the top players in women’s tennis. With high expectations surrounding Sabalenka's performance, it will be interesting to see how she handles the pressures of being the favorite against Tomova, whether she can capture this match as predicted, and how this may set the tone for her campaign in the Miami Open.
