In a highly anticipated quarterfinal match at the 2025 WTA Madrid Open, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will face off against Ukraine's Marta Kostyuk on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, at the Manolo Santana Stadium. The stakes are high as both players aim for a spot in the semifinals, but Sabalenka enters the match as the overwhelming favorite.
Aryna Sabalenka, the reigning champion of the Madrid Open, is looking to defend her title and extend her remarkable streak of finals appearances. Having reached three consecutive finals in her last three tournaments, including a runner-up finish at the Australian Open earlier this year against Madison Keys, Sabalenka is determined to make it four in a row at this prestigious event. She has already showcased her dominance by defeating Anna Blinkova, Elise Mertens, and Katie Stearns to reach the quarterfinals.
On the other hand, Kostyuk, seeded No. 24, comes into this match with a solid momentum after overcoming tough opponents such as Emma Raducanu, Veronika Kudermetova, and Anastasia Potapova to secure her place in the last eight. Despite her current ranking of No. 36 in the world and a mixed record of 11 wins and 9 losses this year, Kostyuk is ready to challenge Sabalenka, who has a perfect 2-0 head-to-head record against her.
"I don’t respect her," Kostyuk stated in 2023, referring to Sabalenka, which adds an intriguing layer to their matchup. This will be their second meeting on clay, a surface where Sabalenka has proven to excel. In their previous encounters, Sabalenka showcased her power and precision, winning decisively in both their matches at the 2023 Roland Garros and the 2022 Dubai Championships.
As the match approaches, betting odds heavily favor Sabalenka, listed at -474 to win the match, while Kostyuk is the underdog at +350. The odds reflect Sabalenka's formidable performance and her status as the top seed. According to Dimers' advanced tennis model, Sabalenka has an estimated 81% chance of winning, while Kostyuk's chances sit at 19%. Furthermore, the model predicts a 76% likelihood that Sabalenka will take the first set.
Sabalenka's impressive statistics for 2025 further bolster her position as the favorite. With a match record of 24-5 and a set record of 47-12, she has proven to be a formidable opponent, averaging 2.9 aces per match and winning 123 break points this season. In contrast, Kostyuk holds a 10-7 match record and a set record of 24-16, with 3.6 aces per match and 75 break points won.
The match is set to begin at approximately 2:00 PM ET, and fans are eager to see if Kostyuk can defy the odds and upset the reigning champion. With both players possessing strong baseline games, the match is expected to be a thrilling display of power and strategy. Kostyuk will need to dictate the rallies and find ways to challenge Sabalenka's serve, particularly targeting her backhand.
As the anticipation builds, the tennis world is watching closely. Can Kostyuk pull off a stunning upset, or will Sabalenka continue her quest for another title? The outcome remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: this quarterfinal clash promises to deliver excitement and drama on the court.
For those looking to place bets, the current odds reflect the strong belief in Sabalenka's chances, with her odds to win the tournament at +150 compared to Kostyuk's +2000. With the match just hours away, fans and analysts alike are eager to see how this highly competitive encounter unfolds.
As the sun sets over Madrid, the stage is set for a showdown between two talented players, each with their own ambitions and narratives. Will Aryna Sabalenka's dominance continue, or will Marta Kostyuk rise to the occasion and claim her first semifinal berth of the season? The tennis community is buzzing with excitement as the countdown to this thrilling match continues.
