The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBRF) has announced its foreign currency exchange rates for April 17, 2025, revealing a mixed performance among major currencies. The US dollar and the Chinese yuan have both seen increases, while the euro has experienced a decline.
On April 17, the CBRF set the value of one US dollar at 82 rubles and 59 kopecks, which is an increase of 29 kopecks compared to the previous day. Meanwhile, the euro has fallen by 34 kopecks, now valued at 93 rubles and 34 kopecks. The Chinese yuan has also risen, albeit slightly, by 12 kopecks, bringing its value to 11 rubles and 28 kopecks.
These fluctuations in currency values come amid ongoing concerns about international trade dynamics, particularly between the United States and China. On April 16, reports indicated that the yuan was retreating against the dollar, primarily due to worries about deteriorating trade relations between the two largest economies in the world.
Despite these concerns, there was some optimism stemming from China's GDP growth figures for the first quarter of 2025, which showed a growth rate of 5.4% year-on-year. This figure matched the growth rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024 and exceeded the expectations of analysts who had predicted a growth rate of 5.1%. However, traders and analysts cautioned that these figures may not fully reflect the impact of recent American tariffs, as many exporters likely preemptively shipped their goods.
Zhivei Zhang, an analyst at Pinpoint Asset Management, stated, "The consequences of the trade war will manifest in macroeconomic data in the coming month." He noted that supply chains are disrupted and that uncertainty remains extremely high for companies and investors.
In a related development, Nvidia reported on April 16 that the US government has imposed restrictions on the export of H20 microchips for artificial intelligence to China, further complicating the trade landscape.
On the foreign exchange front, the spot yuan in the Chinese Foreign Exchange Trade System (SFETS) fell by 0.13% to 7.3244 against the dollar by 09:12 Moscow time on April 16. This value is nearing an 18-month low of 7.3518 reached earlier. Additionally, before the market session opened, the People's Bank of China announced an average fixed rate of 7.2133 per dollar, marking the weakest rate since September 11, 2023. This rate was 1.139 pips weaker than the Reuters forecast of 7.3272, indicating a challenging environment for the yuan.
The ongoing fluctuations in currency values and trade relations underscore the complexities of the current global economic landscape. As countries navigate these challenges, the implications for businesses and consumers could be significant, affecting everything from import costs to investment strategies.
