A fire on the Russian spy ship, Kildin, off the coast of Syria has raised alarm about the state of the Russian navy as its presence in the Mediterranean appears increasingly precarious. According to reports from The Guardian, the incident took place on January 29, 2025, when the 55-year-old vessel started billowing flames and thick black smoke, prompting the crew to hoist two black signals on the mast—an indication they had lost control of the ship.
Nearby, the Togolese-flagged cargo freighter, Milla Moon, was informed of the situation and warned to maintain at least two kilometers of distance from the stricken Kildin. Despite the severity of the fire, the Russian crew managed to gather on the aft deck, locate the lifeboats, but did not call for outside assistance. After approximately five hours of battling the flames, they successfully restarted the ship’s engines and resumed their course.
Western intelligence suggests the Kildin was operating in the eastern Mediterranean to monitor the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad's regime collapse back in December 2024, as Russia began withdrawing military resources from the Tartus port, which it controls. Analysts contend this incident, along with another recent fire on the Russian missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov, highlights the deteriorated state of Russia's naval capabilities. Simultaneously, two other Russian vessels—landing ships Ivan Gren and Aleksandr Otrakovsky—also experienced navigation issues at the same time.
Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, emphasized the long-standing issues facing the Russian navy. "The Russian navy has historically struggled with maintenance and readiness issues. Fires are not uncommon. Operations undoubtedly take their toll, and the Russian fleet does not have adequate maintenance and support capabilities," he stated.
If the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now governing parts of Syria, were to restrict Russia's access to the Tartus base, analysts warn the consequences could be severe. So far, Russia has maintained minimal presence post-Assad, but the long-term intentions of the new Syrian government remain unclear. Recently, HTS annulled a contract with a Russian company, effectively ending its control over the commercial port of Tartus, which had been positioned as a hub for Russian agricultural exports to the Middle East worth approximately $500 million.
Siddharth Kaushal, a senior naval power researcher at the Royal Institute of Defense Studies (RUSI), asserted, "The cancellation of the commercial arrangement is the writing on the wall for the navy, especially with how hand-in-hand the commercial and strategic positions were." He noted how the loss of Tartus would escalate already existing issues within the Russian fleet to full-blown crises.
The Russian navy, according to Kaushal, was not organized for long-duration missions post-Cold War; rather, they developed smaller vessels rapidly packed with missiles, ideal for coastal defense but problematic for extensive operations. "The smaller the vessel, the more acute the maintenance problems," he explained. These problems are compounded by the possibility of losing the Tartus base, which is fundamentally linked to Russia's operational reach.
While Moscow searches for alternatives to sustain its naval foothold, each option poses significant challenges. Algeria, traditionally allied with Russia, faces tensions due to Moscow's involvement with the military junta in Mali. Similarly, the situation in Sudan has evolved, with Russia switching sides during the civil conflict, aiming for access to Port Sudan, which depends on the Suez Canal for Mediterranean access—negotiations here have reportedly stalled.
Alternatively, eastern Libya offers two ports, Tobruk and Benghazi, controlled by the Russian-aligned general Khalifa Haftar, where about 2,000 Russian mercenaries are already present. RUSI reports suggest establishing a Russian base there could provide some respite but would tether the Russian navy's future to Haftar's political maneuvers—a risky proposition for Moscow.
Overall, the fire on the Kildin seems to encapsulate the operational dilemmas facing the Russian navy. These incidents not only highlight current vulnerabilities but also foreshadow dire strategic consequences if access to key ports like Tartus continues to deteriorate. Naval analysts are increasingly vigilant, monitoring developments closely as they could have significant geopolitical repercussions. The future of Russia's presence and influence in the Mediterranean now hangs precariously, as the Kildin fire serves as both warning and signal of broader naval inadequacies.