Russia’s gradual, grinding advance in parts of Ukraine’s eastern region of Donetsk has succeeded in wresting away 4,168 square kilometers (1,609 square miles) of territory so far this year, equivalent to 0.69 percent of the country. This assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, is based on satellite imagery and geolocated video footage. The ISW noted, "Russian forces have seized four mid-sized settlements – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove – since the start of 2024, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people." The report indicates Russian forces spent four months capturing Avdiivka and two months each for Selydove and Kurakhove.
Despite these small territorial gains, the ISW pointed out significant challenges, emphasizing, "seizing these settlements has not allowed Russian forces to threaten any notable Ukrainian defensive nodes," and noted the slow pace of their advances. Predictably, at this rate, Russia would need two more years to complete its conquest of Donetsk alone. This is contrary to Russian President Vladimir Putin's order for his commanders to accomplish this goal by October 1.
The costs of this campaign on the Russian side have been tremendous. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii reported on Monday the Russian forces have endured approximately 427,000 casualties, made up of both killed and wounded soldiers. Just days later, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence revised Russia's losses last year to about 430,790, which translates to the loss of 36 motorized rifle divisions, exceeding their total losses from 2022 and 2023 combined. These casualties averaged 1,180 troops per day, with numbers peaking substantially toward the end of the year as Russian forces intensified their assaults to attempt to influence the U.S. elections.
"This year, the Russians paid the highest price for the war against Ukraine, as our army and all of our defence and security forces of Ukraine destroyed more enemy equipment and manpower than any previous years of the war," Syrskii stated following these assessments. Notably, Russian advances per day increased from 14 square kilometers (5.4 square miles) in October to 28 square kilometers (nearly 11 square miles) at one point, but dropped back to 18 square kilometers (11 square miles) daily by December.
Ukrainian forces have continued to inflict severe casualties on Russian troops, with reports flowing from last month indicating losses of 1,700 killed and wounded daily. December especially marked an uptick for Russian casualties, where Ukrainian officials cited losses of 2,010 soldiers on December 29 and potential record-breaking figures of 2,200 casualties occurring on December 19 during intense ground engagements.
Upland of these grim statistics, the conflict's technological aspect is noteworthy. Ukraine claimed to have destroyed 3,689 Russian tanks, thousands of armored combat vehicles, and more than 13,000 artillery pieces. The Ukrainian Navy has also reportedly sunk five ships and 458 smaller vessels. Internationally, Russia has restructured its manpower strategy, even recruiting North Korean fighters due to increasing manpower pressures faced at the front lines. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimated as early as late December 2023, "According to preliminary data, the number of killed and wounded North Korean soldiers already exceeds 3,000 people." Zelensky later remarked on the harsh realities confronting these soldiers, stating, "Everything is arranged so the Koreans cannot be captured as prisoners – their own people are executing them, there are such cases."
Despite these encroachments, President Putin indicated he was prioritizing military reinforcement over economic stability, having signed decrees displacing undocumented migrants to bolster military ranks. There is rising concern surrounding Russia's reported labor shortage, echoing claims of wide-reaching declines across their labor force last year. Putin acknowledged shortages of "hundreds of thousands" during his end-of-year press conference.
Even as Russia faced significant resource crunches, both countries have moved toward war economies. Ukraine has made strides toward achieving arms independence, with President Zelensky announcing for the first time last year, 30 percent of the weapons were domestically produced. Further, Ukraine has effectively utilized aerial and naval drones to strike deep within Russian territory, leading to notable military advancements.
Meanwhile, the situation has grown dire on the ground with continuous Russian drone and missile attacks. Recent statistics from January indicate Russian strikes killed two people and injured at least 13 others within just one day. The Air Force reported downing 60 out of 93 launched drones, including Shahed types. Damaged Russian drones resulted in significant debris across various regions, causing injuries and fatalities as well as property destruction. For example, wreckage claimed the life of a truck driver born in 1999, along with injuries from debris damaging homes.
The crisis has exacerbated with Russian forces targeting urban centers; significant damages reported from strikes on residential neighborhoods across several regions, including the city of Sumy, where search and rescue efforts are underway after injurious impacts from aerial bombs.
Though the circumstances remain precarious, the international community, spearheaded by European Union efforts, is dedicatively working toward supporting Ukraine amid its plight. European Council President Antonio Costa emphasized during Poland's presidency of the EU, the necessity of continued support for Ukraine, recognizing this period as pivotal to the region's future security framework, affirming, "the EU is not going to leave Ukraine to its fate. International law must prevail for the freedom of the Ukrainian people and our common security," reitering defense as core to diplomacy.
While conflict shows no signs of abetting, the response from both Ukrainian resilience and international backing could still shift the dynamics of this brutal chapter of geopolitical strife.