On the morning of September 13, 2025, Romania found itself thrust into the international spotlight after scrambling its fighter jets to intercept a Russian drone that had brazenly entered its airspace. The incident, which saw the drone breach some 10 kilometers into Romanian territory and linger in NATO airspace for nearly 50 minutes before veering back toward Ukraine, has reignited concerns across Eastern Europe about Moscow’s intentions and the security of NATO’s eastern flank.
Romanian authorities wasted no time in sounding the alarm. Residents in Tulcea county, a southeastern region hugging the Danube and bordering Ukraine, were urged to take cover as the drone zipped overhead. According to the Romanian defense ministry, the F-16 pilots came perilously close to shooting down the drone, which was flying unusually low before it exited Romanian skies. The ministry’s swift response underscored the heightened state of alert that now grips the region.
This was not an isolated event. Just days earlier, on September 9, Poland was also forced to confront Russian drone intrusions—nineteen in a single day, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The Polish military managed to shoot down at least three drones, with a fourth likely destroyed, as the unmanned aircraft entered Polish airspace from Belarus. In a stark warning to parliament, Tusk declared, “the country is the closest to armed conflict since World War Two.” These consecutive incidents have prompted a wave of speculation and anxiety: Is Russia testing NATO’s resolve?
Romania and Poland are not just any European states; both are longstanding NATO members. Romania joined the alliance in March 2004, sharing a lengthy 650-kilometer border with Ukraine. Poland, on the other hand, has been part of NATO since 1999 and now invests more than 4% of its GDP in defense—more than any other member of the alliance. For both countries, the stakes could hardly be higher.
In response to the growing threat of drone incursions, Romanian lawmakers earlier this year approved a law enabling the military to shoot down drones illegally breaching the country’s airspace even during peacetime, should they pose a threat to human life or property. However, as of mid-September, the law’s full enforcement rules have yet to be finalized, leaving some uncertainty about the precise protocols for future incidents.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not mince words in his reaction. Taking to social media platform X, he stated, “It is an obvious expansion of the war by Russia and this is exactly how they act.” He called for increased sanctions and tariffs against Russian trade, as well as collective defense measures. Zelensky’s remarks captured the unease rippling through the region, as countries bordering Ukraine weigh the risks of escalation against the imperative of self-defense.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s own military fortunes have shown glimmers of hope. On September 14, Zelensky reported that Ukrainian forces had made advances in the border districts of the northern Sumy region, an area where Russian troops have tried for months to gain a foothold. Citing Ukraine’s top commander Oleksandr Syrsky, Zelensky noted that Moscow’s forces had suffered significant losses in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions along the approximately 1,000-kilometer frontline. “There are good results in border areas of Sumy region,” Zelensky said, adding, “Our units are continuing to advance in the direction of Ukraine’s state border.”
Despite these successes, the broader conflict remains grim. Russian troops continue their slow, grinding push across eastern Ukraine, with Moscow making near-daily announcements of newly captured villages. The Kremlin has already annexed four regions it partially occupies—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Notably, Dnipropetrovsk has thus far eluded full Russian control, though Moscow claims to have taken several villages along its administrative border. The war, now well into its third year, has settled into a punishing stalemate, with neither side able to claim decisive victory.
For NATO, the stakes are existential. The alliance, founded in the aftermath of World War II as a bulwark against Soviet expansionism, now comprises 31 member states. Under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949, each member is obligated to come to the defense of any other member under attack. While the alliance is “committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes,” as its official statement puts it, it also possesses the military power to undertake crisis-management operations should diplomacy fail.
The recent drone incursions have prompted fresh debate within NATO about the adequacy of its current posture. Some analysts argue that Russia is deliberately probing NATO’s defenses, looking for weaknesses or hesitation that could be exploited. Others suggest these incidents are intended as psychological warfare, meant to unsettle the alliance and test the limits of its collective response. While NATO’s official position is that membership is open to any European state able to contribute to North Atlantic security, the alliance has thus far resisted calls to admit Ukraine, wary of triggering a broader war with Russia.
Nevertheless, support for Ukraine remains robust. British troops are currently stationed in Estonia and Poland as part of NATO’s peacekeeping duties, and the United Kingdom has conducted extensive military training with Ukrainian forces since 2015. Western countries continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and intelligence, bolstering its ability to resist Russian advances. Yet, without formal NATO membership, Ukraine cannot benefit from the alliance’s mutual defense guarantees—a fact that weighs heavily on both Kyiv and its allies.
As the situation along NATO’s eastern border grows more precarious, some fear that Russia’s actions could set a dangerous precedent. If Moscow succeeds in Ukraine, it could attempt further westward expansion, threatening other countries like Georgia—or even emboldening other global powers to pursue similar tactics elsewhere. For now, though, Russia appears far from achieving its goals. The unexpectedly fierce resistance mounted by Ukraine, supported by a united coalition of international allies, has turned what many in Moscow hoped would be a swift campaign into a costly and protracted struggle.
As the dust settles from the latest drone incursions, the message from Romania, Poland, and their NATO partners is clear: vigilance is the order of the day. The alliance stands ready to defend its members, but the specter of escalation remains ever-present. In the words of those on the front lines, the world is watching—and waiting to see what Russia will do next.
