Moscow is setting extensive conditions to implement a ceasefire in the Black Sea following 12 hours of discussions with the United States, as reported by CNN. The Kremlin has shrouded ongoing negotiations and the prospects for a total ceasefire in uncertainty.
On Tuesday, March 25, 2025, the Kremlin announced that it would only implement the White House-mediated agreement to end hostilities in the Black Sea if sanctions on its banks and exports, imposed due to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, are lifted. After several days of separate discussions with Ukrainian and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, the White House stated that both parties had agreed to a partial ceasefire aimed at ensuring safe navigation, eliminating military force, and preventing the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.
Additionally, the parties agreed to implement a previously announced pause in attacks against energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski confirmed in a press conference that Ukraine agreed to refrain from using military force in the Black Sea.
The Kremlin's declaration included substantial conditions for accepting the partial ceasefire, which involve lifting sanctions on its agricultural bank and other financial institutions and companies involved in food exports, as well as reconnecting them to the SWIFT international payment system. These sanctions were imposed after Moscow launched its unprovoked large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that his administration is currently analyzing Russia's conditions, which include five or six stipulations. "We are reflecting on all of this right now. There are five or six conditions. We're looking at all of them," Trump said at the White House.
The Russian demands raise new questions about how or when such a limited agreement could be implemented and highlight the significant gap in expectations between the two conflicting parties. In his nightly address, Zelenski accused Moscow of attempting to mislead mediators by adding new terms. "They are already trying to distort the agreements and actually deceive both our mediators and the entire world," he said.
The White House's statements regarding the agreement with Russia did not explicitly mention Moscow's conditions, but the US appears to have offered various incentives to both Kyiv and Moscow for complying with their side of the bargain. For instance, the US included a promise to "help restore Russia's access to the global market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reduce maritime insurance costs, and improve access to ports and payment systems for such transactions"—a possible indication of the US's willingness to lift some economic sanctions in exchange for the ceasefire.
However, the details and timeline for relaxing restrictions remain unclear, as do the future of European sanctions. Kyiv and its European allies have previously warned against lifting sanctions before a ceasefire is actually reached.
Clarifications regarding attacks on energy infrastructure were also outlined in the two White House statements, which noted that both Ukraine and Russia separately agreed to "develop measures for implementing" an agreement prohibiting attacks against energy facilities as an extension of the previously announced partial ceasefire.
Zelenski confirmed this aspect of the agreement, adding that Ukraine provided the US with a list of energy facilities it would like included. The Kremlin stated that it agreed on the list of Ukrainian and Russian energy facilities to be protected from attacks, which includes refineries, oil and gas pipelines, storage facilities, pumping stations, power plants, substations, transformers, and distributors. Attacks on both Russian and Ukrainian nuclear power plants and hydroelectric dams will also be prohibited under the temporary moratorium on attacks on the energy system, which began on March 18, 2025, and will remain in effect for 30 days.
Later, Zelenski dismissed Moscow's claim that a pause in reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure had already begun, stating, "There is one aspect on which the Kremlin is lying again: that the alleged calm in the Black Sea depends on the issue of sanctions and that the alleged date for the start of the energy ceasefire is March 18." He added, "Moscow always lies."
As the Trump administration seeks to finalize a peace agreement in Ukraine, Russian officials have previously shown interest in US-led proposals but have accompanied them with impossible conditions. Earlier this month, after Kyiv accepted a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire along the entire front line, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated he agreed with the proposal in essence but requested a series of concessions before signing.
No joint statement from the US and Russia was issued after the lengthy discussions regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, despite expectations for one. The Interfax news agency quoted Vladimir Cijov, the first deputy chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, explaining that the declaration was not adopted due to Ukraine's position. "The fact that they sat for 12 hours and seemed to agree on a joint statement, which was not adopted due to Ukraine's position, is also very characteristic and symptomatic," he stated without providing details on Ukraine's "position."
Instead of a total ceasefire or a partial resolution of fundamental issues such as territorial division, the White House's Tuesday statements outlined an agreement similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed Ukraine to export grain by sea, circumventing the Russian blockade of Black Sea ports and navigating a safe route to Turkey's Bosporus Strait to reach global markets. Ukraine was one of the world's largest grain exporters before the large-scale invasion by Russia. This initiative was signed in July 2022 and renewed three times before Russia refused to renew it in July 2023, citing that its demands had not been met.
The US announcement of a Black Sea ceasefire created a favorable context for Moscow to seek the lifting of Western sanctions. President Zelenski described the agreement as a step in the right direction but stated that it is too early to assess its effectiveness. The White House did not clarify when the ceasefire in the Black Sea is expected to take effect.
Shortly after the announcement from Washington, the Kremlin specified that the understanding would not work until sanctions imposed on Russian banks, producers, and exporters involved in international food and fertilizer trade are lifted. Among the measures requested by Russia are the reconnection of relevant banks to the SwiftPay payment system, lifting restrictions on servicing Russian-flagged vessels involved in food trade, and supplying agricultural machinery and other goods necessary for food production.
In response to the lifting of sanctions, Trump stated, "We are thinking about all of this right now. We are conducting an analysis." One thing is clear and was mentioned in the White House's Tuesday statement: "The United States will contribute to restoring Russia's access to the global market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reduce maritime insurance costs, and improve access to ports and payment systems for such transactions."
Despite the discussions, Russia has continued its attacks, launching drone strikes on the Ukrainian port of Nikolaev (Mikolaiv), which provides Ukraine's access to the Black Sea, and hitting the city of Krivoi Rog (Krivîi Rih), which officials claim was the largest drone attack on this central city. The mayor of Nikolaev reported urgent power outages in the city following the announcement made by the regional governor, stating that seven drones were shot down over the region overnight.
At present, it is unclear whether these power outages were precautionary measures or a result of the overnight attack on Nikolaev. Russia also targeted Krivoi Rog, causing fires and damaging buildings, though no fatalities were reported, according to the city's military administration head. "Apparently, this is how the occupiers want peace," wrote Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of the military administration, describing the new attack as the largest drone assault on the city. "The most important thing is that no deaths or injuries have been recorded," he added.
Reuters has not been able to independently verify reports from Nikolaev and Krivoi Rog. The scale of the attack on Krivoi Rog and the targeted sites remain unclear. Vilkul previously announced at least 15 explosions in Krivoi Rog, the hometown of President Zelenski and a frequent target of Russian attacks. There has been no comment from Russia; however, the Moscow Defense Ministry announced that its air defense units had destroyed nine Ukrainian drones overnight, including two over the Black Sea.
