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15 December 2024

Russia Reduces Military Forces Amid Assad Regime Change

Troop withdrawal reported, but key bases remain secure as negotiations continue.

Russia is taking significant steps to reduce its military presence in Syria, following the recent fall of Bashar Assad's regime. According to reports from Reuters, the Kremlin is partially withdrawing its troops from frontline positions in northern Syria and posts located in the Alawite mountains, retaining forces primarily at two strategic military locations: the Khmeimim Air Base situated in Latakia Province and the Tartus Naval Base along the Mediterranean coast.

Following December 8, the day after Assad's regime crumbled, reports surfaced from four anonymous Syrian officials, indicating substantial developments concerning Russian troop movements. These officials disclosed the withdrawal of some heavy equipment and the return of senior officers to Moscow, though they affirmed the continued presence of Russian forces at the two main bases.

Notably, reports indicated satellite imagery showing at least two Antonov An-124 cargo planes at Khmeimim Air Base, which appeared to be preparing for loading. These movements suggest logistical operations are underway, with at least one documented flight departing for Libya, as reported by security contacts associated with the Russian forces.

A high-ranking officer within the Syrian military informed journalists of plans to relocate some equipment back to Russia. While the internal dynamics between the existing governmental structures and Russian military influence remain delicate, discussions related to the future of Russia's military presence are reportedly not being addressed at this time.

"Это вопрос будущих переговоров, и последнее слово будет за сирийским народом," stated one high-ranking representative connected to the new interim administration, emphasizing the pivotal role of Syrian citizens concerning any future agreements.

Another anonymous source confirmed to Reuters, "Россия не собирается выводить контингент со своих баз," reaffirming Moscow's commitment to retaining its military foothold within the country.

The recent reductions are said to be part of strategies to realign Russian military objectives as circumstances evolve on the ground, reflecting the Kremlin’s flexibility amid changing dynamics following the Assad shake-up.

Following the heightened state of military readiness at these bases earlier this month, Russian officials engaged with local stakeholders and established direct contacts with representatives of the newly formed Syrian administration. These negotiations appear to center on ensuring the security of Russia’s bases within Syria, even amid turmoil.

With tensions still apparent, as indicated by close proximity of rebel forces to Russian installations, dialogues appear complicated yet necessary. Another official remarked, "Москва наладила каналы связи с повстанцами," illustrating the dynamic interactions taking place as all parties seek to navigate their interests amid shifting power structures.

This current strategic repositioning sees the Russian military engaged not only with the Ongoing military situation but also politically, as Moscow addresses the new realities on the ground. There remains significant focus on negotiating terms to retain control over Khmeimim and Tartus bases ensuring they remain pivotal to Russia's military operations.

The information gathered paints a picture of potential stability within certain isolated military spheres even as broader regional dynamics remain fluid and uncertain. With Russia's military presence having been solidified back since 2015, Moscow's next moves will critically shape its role moving forward, especially as negotiations evolve with the new governing powers.

Overall, as Russia begins to withdraw certain elements, its commitment to maintaining these pivotal bases, alongside the established dialogue with new authorities, projects its intent to sustain influence within Syria, reinforcing their position amid regional instability.

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