Russia is seeking to maintain its long-held military presence and influence in Syria, employing diplomatic efforts as it navigates the aftermath of the fall of its ally, Bashar al-Assad, who was ousted on December 8, 2024.
Following the regime change, the Kremlin faces the challenge of negotiating with the newly installed leaders, particularly with Ahmed al-Shara, the interim president, and Foreign Minister Assad al-Shibani. A Russian delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and special envoy Alexander Lavrentiev, visited Damascus on January 28, 2025, marking Moscow's first foray after the Assad regime's collapse.
According to Vitaly Naumkin, consultant to the Russian Security Council, "Russia is ready to help Syria restore its economy." The delegation aims to preserve Russia’s pivotal military bases, which are fundamental for projecting its power across the Middle East and Africa. They discussed the potential for continued military cooperation and economic support, highlighting the previous investment agreements abandoned after Assad’s fall.
Ahmed al-Shara voiced his pragmatism about Russia's role, stating, "I do not want Moscow to leave Damascus 'in the manner some hope for.'" This indicates the new Syrian administration’s acknowledgment of the significant military and economic history shared with Russia. Further emphasizing cooperation, al-Shara noted, "We are not in a hurry to get Russia out of Syria, as some people believe." This reflects both the new government's desire for stability and the importance of Russian support.
Despite the initial debates, negotiations were complicated by al-Shara's demand for compensation for the destruction wrought by Russian airstrikes during the civil war and the inquiry about the extradition of Assad and his associates facing justice. Charles Lister, from the Middle East Institute, captures the essence of the current milieu, stating, “We Syrians don’t need to fight with anyone at this point, including our former enemies.”
The discussions also covered transitional justice mechanisms aimed at addressing past grievances and fostering trust between the new government and its citizens, underlining the necessity for collaboration on war-torn reconstruction efforts.
The stakes are high for Moscow; Bogdanov indicated, "The situation Syria has faced will not alter Russia’s readiness to contribute to stabilizing the country." Maintaining influence has become even more relevant since Russia's two primary bases—Tartus and Hmeimeem—are pivotal for its global military strategy against terrorism.
A significant shift is evident as the Kremlin is recalibrated; amid faltering ambitions, analysts suggest redirecting Moscow's resources toward Libya after its Syrian operations faced interruptions. Reportedly, Russia has developed relations with Libyan Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, establishing supply and support connections across various military bases.
Yet, replicability of this influence poses challenges. The political complexity within Libya, rival factions' presence, and international scrutiny, particularly from the U.S. and EU, will complicate attempts to create strategic footholds as effectively as Syria offered prior.
The Syrian leaders seek to solidify their authority domestically and are cognizant of international perceptions, especially following years of internal conflict. They face the delicate balancing act of securing international legitimacy and support without alienation.
The Russians have framed the shift from supporting Assad's regime to engaging with the new powers as "improvised opportunism," according to Hanna Notte, which showcases the versatility expected within international relations, especially with nations rising from tumultuous periods.
Moscow's ability to assert its influence relies on sustained military presence and economic collaborations, not only to bolster its geopolitical status but to contribute meaningfully to restoring stability—facilitated by humanitarian assistance and civil recovery efforts.
Both Russia and Syria currently stand at pivotal crossroads. Each country holds bargaining chips; it remains to be seen how effectively these will be navigated amid broader regional dynamics, posturing from external entities, and internal restructuring as they grapple with legacies of combat and the tedium of rebuilding.
With global powers increasingly entering the fray, Russia's position may remain precarious, advocating for stability and relevance, against the backdrop of past entanglements—a paradox worth observing as the saga continues to unfurl.