On February 24, 2025, as the world marks three years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin is orchestrated efforts to declare victory over both Ukraine and NATO. Ukrainian military intelligence, known as HUR, revealed on February 21, 2025, Russia’s intentions to craft narratives aimed at demoralizing Ukrainians and destabilizing the country.
HUR reported the strategic deployment of propaganda meant to portray the conflict as one not just against Ukraine but also against NATO, pivoting from their past failures to swiftly secure dominance. This shift began after initial Russian attempts to take over Ukraine quickly faltered, leading to significant losses throughout the year 2022. Indeed, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces indicated Moscow has faced staggering troop losses, with 864,860 casualties reported since the onset of the conflict.
Accusations from Russian propaganda will also include allegations of betrayal by Western allies and the U.S., claiming Ukraine has been forsaken amid the war. HUR particularly noted how the narrative would seek to undermine confidence toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling him illegitimate and hinting at corruption among officials handling U.S. aid. Such themes were echoed by Russian narratives seeking to diminish Ukraine’s standing among its allies, even as multiple reports highlighted the absurdity of claims questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy.
It’s important to note the legal and political backdrop to these claims. Ukraine has been under martial law since the full-scale invasion commenced, making it impossible to hold elections. Legal experts have asserted this condition allows for the extension of Zelensky's term under Ukrainian law. This situation complicates the narrative used by Russian propagandists. Critics of the regime have leveraged the narrative around Zelensky to question democracy and governance standards within Ukraine.
Further complicity was witnessed when former U.S. President Donald Trump characterized Ukraine as the instigator of the war, ignoring the broader geopolitical realities and historical contexts surrounding Russia’s aggressive maneuvers. This portrayal favored the Kremlin's narrative of victimhood over accountability, highlighting how disinformation can perpetuate strife and misinformation.
To boost its propaganda campaign, Moscow is utilizing tools like bot farms and fake social media profiles to exacerbate divisions within Ukrainian society. The SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) elaborated on these tactics, emphasizing the disruptive goals behind such strategies, which aim to incite unrest among Ukrainians and erode public support for the government.
Meanwhile, discussions between American and Russian delegations, which recently took place without Ukraine's participation, serve as another focal point for the Kremlin's information warfare. By leveraging these talks, Russia aims to shift international sentiments, painting countries supporting Ukraine as enemies of peace. This exclusion has been described as alarming by Kyiv, which perceives it as diminishing Ukraine's sovereignty on the global stage.
Despite these challenges posed by misinformation, Ukraine continues to receive military support from Western allies who refrain from sending troops on the ground due to concerns about escalation. The concerted effort from Ukraine’s supporters serves as both military assistance and counter-narrative formation against Russian misinformation.
The stakes of this information war are high, as not only do they influence public perception at home, but they could also determine the level of international support Ukraine continues to receive. Western nations must tread carefully, ensuring their messaging does not inadvertently reinforce the narratives spun by Russian propaganda.
Without question, the resilience of the Ukrainian public and government is being tested as these narratives proliferate. HUR's insights indicate potential attempts to undermine confidence and spread despair must be met with steadfast resolve and unity. And as the geopolitical ramifications of the war continue to grow, vigilance against misinformation remains imperative for both Ukrainian citizens and their global allies.
Given the historical significance of February 24 and the narratives set to emerge, this year poses just as significant challenges and tasks for Ukraine's leadership as it did three years ago. With international eyes focused on the region, it remains to be seen how the struggle for truth and morale will play out amid the battlefield of information.