Russia has imposed new restrictions on oil exports from its Black Sea ports, with significant implications for its oil supply chain. On Wednesday, April 2, 2025, the state-owned pipeline operator Transneft announced a suspension of operations at one of the marine piers in Novorossiysk for 90 days. This decision follows an inspection by the Transport Organization, which uncovered multiple violations.
Novorossiysk is a key commercial port for Russia, and the closure of berth number 8 is expected to impact operations, albeit not drastically. Transneft stated that the temporary restrictions on operations were necessary due to identified violations, and the port has until June 30, 2025, to resolve the issues. The suspension of this pier is particularly noteworthy as it had previously received around 100,000 tons of diesel between January and March.
These restrictions come in the wake of heightened scrutiny on oil shipments via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Just two days prior, on March 31, Russia had closed two out of three marine areas associated with the CPC, which is partially owned by American companies Chevron and ExxonMobil. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, linked these actions to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, while Ukraine has accused Russia of imposing restrictions on its ports for military purposes.
In addition to the oil export restrictions, the market is also witnessing a rise in Russian wheat prices due to increased export demand and limited supply. The situation has created a supply-demand imbalance, with significant challenges in vessel procurement. According to SovEcon, the prices for 12.5% protein wheat from Russian deep-sea ports have risen to between 17,600 and 18,000 rubles per metric ton, up from 17,300 to 17,800 rubles per metric ton the previous week.
This price increase marks the first positive shift since mid-February, driven by a combination of rising demand from exporters and ongoing supply constraints. As of early March, total wheat stocks in Russia stand at 11.6 million metric tons, reflecting a significant 34% decrease compared to the previous year. Southern export regions are particularly affected, with stocks down by 56% to just 2.5 million metric tons.
Export activity has surged recently, with 400,000 metric tons of wheat exported last week, compared to 300,000 metric tons the week before. However, the strengthening ruble has complicated matters. While it has pushed bidding prices higher, it has also negatively impacted export margins. The ruble’s exchange rate recently reached 84.19 rubles per US dollar, a notable increase from 105.06 rubles just a month ago.
Andrey Sizov, Managing Director of SovEcon, has indicated that the current pricing and exchange rate dynamics suggest that wheat supplies from Russia are likely to remain limited in the near future. This limitation could provide some support for global prices, as the international market adjusts to these developments.
The recent actions surrounding both oil and wheat exports highlight the complexities facing Russia's export landscape amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. With the United States increasing its scrutiny of Russian oil shipments and threatening secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers, the ramifications for Russia’s economy could be significant.
In summary, the combination of oil export restrictions and rising wheat prices illustrates a challenging environment for Russia’s export capabilities. As the situation evolves, both domestic and international markets will be watching closely to see how these restrictions and market dynamics play out.
