In April 2025, the Russian ruble experienced a notable strengthening against the dollar and yuan, rising by 4%. This increase was primarily influenced by external factors, particularly the trade tariffs imposed by the United States on China, which weakened both currencies. Specifically, the dollar fell against the ruble by 4.6%, while the yuan dropped by 4.4%. The euro also appreciated against the ruble, increasing by 0.8%. This trend was further confirmed by the DXY index, which reflects the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies, falling by 4.8% during the same period.
Analysts, including Alexander Potavin, have provided forecasts for the ruble's performance in May. Potavin predicts that the dollar will range between 83 and 90 rubles, contingent on favorable developments. He notes that the dynamics of the dollar's exchange rate will be significantly influenced by the actions of the U.S. and Chinese authorities, which will also characterize the ruble's performance in the upcoming month.
As May approaches, historical trends suggest a decrease in activity within the foreign exchange market due to holidays and weekends. This seasonal decline typically leads to a narrower range of fluctuations in currency values. For instance, in 2022, the dollar-to-ruble exchange rate fluctuated between -4.5% and 2.4%, while the euro's range was between -3.6% and 2.8%. Given the current economic climate, it is unlikely that the ruble will experience drastic changes in May 2025.
Looking ahead, analysts predict that the ruble may face devaluation in the next three to four months. Arthur Meinhard, head of the analytical department for global markets at Fontvielle, stated, "Currently, there are no reasons for the ruble to strengthen when considering the medium-term outlook. The geopolitical situation may clarify over the summer, leading to a potential decline of the ruble against other currencies." This sentiment is echoed by Razuvayev, who emphasizes that the strengthening of the ruble has created a positive backdrop, but upcoming budget adjustments may signal a shift in this trend.
On May 4, 2025, Razuvayev highlighted that the government is forced to revise the budget parameters for 2025 due to falling oil prices and the ruble's strengthening, which is expected to lead to reduced revenues and an increased deficit. He notes that budget revenues are expected to decrease by 4.5%, with the deficit projected to rise to 1.7% of GDP. Despite these challenges, the government intends to maintain its budget priorities, which include social support, defense, and technological leadership.
Additionally, the anticipated devaluation of the ruble to between 100 and 120 rubles per dollar is expected to occur alongside a stabilization around the 100 ruble mark. This devaluation could accelerate inflation, support exporters, and influence the Bank of Russia's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates.
As the situation unfolds, it is clear that the Russian economy is facing significant challenges that require careful management of both fiscal and monetary policies. The interplay of external economic pressures, domestic budgetary constraints, and geopolitical developments will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the ruble and the overall economic landscape in Russia.
